Khan is summarizing his think tank's report on DUV immersion lithography, which only Japan and the Netherlands produce. Some of the tools can still be exported to China, and he says China's installed stock has roughly doubled since the 2023 controls.
…to indigenize. There's all of these other tools in the supply chain, whether it's deposition tools or etch tools. They might be able to indigenize these earlier. So if you're really looking at the long-term prospects for US AI leadership, this is the tool that will be most important. And go ahead.
…much as it is a legal case for why America should go down policy A of patching, of passing the Match Act and banning DUV exports. So I just want to like hats off to Safe and the crew. Like you guys are starting off with a banger here. This is not, the funders are getting their money's worth, Safe.
…tools today, we project that China is probably going to be capped out at something like 10 million per year in their indigenous production. If they mobilize, maybe in the tens of millions, if they are able to indigenize all of the other tools in the supply chain, if they're going to choose not to make smartphone chips and the like, that's an edge scenario, but that's still only tens of millions. Whereas if you continue to export these tools, there's a plausible world where the uncertainty ranges of U.S. production start to overlap with Chinese production. So we could potentially give that entire lead away. So this is actually possibly the most consequential lever for shaping the US-China AI gap into the 2030s. So, and then we have some policy options that we present as part of the paper as well.
Yeah. So, you know, a lot of it's easy to make a graph with cones. It's hard to make a graph with cones that will convince me that the cones are actually, you know, real in their sort of like standard deviation confidence intervals. And, you know, you guys have done the work to make this case…
100x, I would say.
Okay. As a floor, our 10X edge on sort of like compute compute production. And that is something that could scale up more dramatically in other scenarios. So. I guess the meta question, Safe, is like, had you like, there were lots of people who have been arguing for DUV controls without this report…