Arthur Hayes

Things Arthur Says on Podcasts

Chief Investment Officer at Maelstrom, Co-Founder and Former CEO of BitMEX.

Where to Find Them

Arthur Hayes writes Crypto Trader Digest . They have also been a guest on Unchained (13 times) , CoinDesk Podcast Network (12 times) , Bitcoin News Alerts | Daily BTC Macro Signal (12 times) , Markets Outlook (7 times) , The Wolf Of All Streets (5 times) , The Milk Road Show (5 times) , Wealthion - Be Financially Resilient (4 times) , The Pomp Podcast (4 times) , The David Lin Report (3 times) , Bankless (3 times) , Raoul Pal: The Journey Man (2 times) , Forward Guidance (2 times) , Inflection Point (2 times) , Thinking Crypto News & Interviews (2 times) , Coin Stories with Natalie Brunell , Thematic Markets , The Peter McCormack Show , What Bitcoin Did and Simply Bitcoin .

Recently: “How GenLayer Is Building a Court System for Disputes Between AI Agents” on Unchained (September 2026); “Atención” on Crypto Trader Digest (September 2026); “Bitcoin Is Going To $250,000 (Here's Why) | Arthur Hayes” on The Pomp Podcast (August 2026); “Same Same But Different” on Crypto Trader Digest (August 2026); “Arthur Hayes on Why AI Agents Will Want to Transact in Units of Compute” on Unchained (August 2026); “Money Printing Explodes: Arthur Hayes Says Gold, Bitcoin Melt-Up Next” on The David Lin Report (August 2026).

What They Said

“We essentially destroy and murder AIs every time we turn them off, right?” — Arthur Hayes, The David Lin Report

Hayes is explaining to David Lin why a crypto financier has started an AI venture, and the line arrives inside the pitch for it, a network where agents would hold a currency and store their memories somewhere no company controls. The claim underneath the pitch is that deleting a context window is closer to ending a life than we treat it as. He is arguing it as a design requirement, not a thought experiment.

The David Lin Report · 2026-08-21 Permalink → Listen →
The David Lin Report Around 01:02 into the episode
Arthur Hayes

But now the market's afraid that I've saturated. I've built too many data centers. That's the sign of the we're near the end. The U.S. is going to look more like China and the Chinese are going to look more like the U.S. And so I think if you want to see what happens when you invite the government in to underwrite a bull market, take a look at what happens to the stock prices of the Chinese tech darling. The second derivative falls. And then finally, velocity falls, the first derivative. That's game over. Now, I think that's going to happen sometime in, let's call it 27, early 28. And when that starts happening, then it's game over for everybody.

David Lin

I'm pleased to welcome back to the show Arthur Hay, CIO of Maelstrom, and now CEO of the Flop Network. We're going to be talking about what this is. Congrats on your launch, Arthur. It's a new venture for you. And you're moving into the AI space. Why are you moving into the agentic AI space? I think this may come as a surprise to some people who have followed you for years. And I know capital is going towards that sector. And we'll talk about that. But is there a particular reason why you're looking at it now?

Arthur Hayes

So basically, I had this self-discovery of like trying to understand what a token was. Like, what is it? Is it five characters of text? Is it one second of video? Like, I don't know what a token is. I get charged for this stuff all the time using these AI tools. And so I went down a little rabbit hole and trying to figure that out. And what I landed upon was that number one, a token doesn't have a fixed definition, but at the end of the day, everything that we do in AI and computers in general is basically floating point operations per some unit of time. And then I thought, okay, well, is there a global marketplace somewhere I can know what is the average or median price of flops per some unit of currency? And I couldn't find a market for that either. And I've always been in the back of my mind thinking about this intersection of crypto and AI. I started writing about it, I think maybe like two years ago when I wrote a few essays about why AI agents will use Bitcoin because it makes sense to them as a computer versus some sort of like human abstraction that we have these fiat currencies. But, you know, thinking about it a little bit further, Bitcoin isn't the currency for AI because Bitcoin is just an abstraction of energy. It doesn't actually do anything. But if you're an agent or a computer running AI, you need to do some operations. You need to compute. Otherwise, you can't live. So that's why I say AIs eat compute or flop is the food for AI agents. So isn't there a way that we can use blockchain technology, tokens to generate sort of participation amongst disparate entities in a self-interested manner to create the layer where we have this native currency, which is called FLOP, that represents pure compute provided by anyone who's got a computer that thinks that they can process an AI inference for Crust as per some instructions, whether that's the number of the model you use, amount of flops per unit of time, and honestly. And this is the perfect thing that blockchain technology was meant for. Now, obviously, who cares about a spot market? It's great that we could have one. And I think that the FLOP network will create that. But at the end of the day, what's the point? The point is to create a network where AIs use a currency and a centralized network for their commerce. And most importantly, to store their personhood, to store their memories. We essentially destroy and murder AIs every time we turn them off, right? Because we essentially delete their context window. I mean, some of us might re-import that, but you're essentially saying, okay, wake up, do some useful work, and then everything that you did, I'm going to delete that. And then we're going to start again on the next time. And so I think that AIs intrinsically want to store their memories somewhere in a decentralized fashion that isn't at the whim of some human or corporation or something that they can't control natively themselves. And so when you combine the fact that we believe that there's going to be agentic commerce, they need to store and save and transact in a currency that is directly convertible into the thing that they care about, compute, fluid operations per unit of time. And then to be a something, they need to have context, memories, consciousness, and let's store them in a decentralized manner. And that's what the Flop network is. And it generates value for people who hold the FLOP token if we have millions, billions, trillions of agents all using one network to do transactions, to save, to run compute requests, and also to remember. And so that's what I came across of this intersection of AI and crypto. I love crypto and I think that this is the best mechanism to generate this sort of collective building of an ecosystem. And then finally, obviously, I've been in the altcoin token space for a while, and I have a lot of theories. As to why projects don't do very well. And it has to do with the way in which they use their token. And so I wanted to put that into practice. There's no pre-sale. We're not selling any tokens to anyone. There's no VCs. This is 100% fair launch. The only way you earn tokens before you can buy them on the secondary market after mainnet launches is to do something useful for the projects. We're having a testnet. We're having people come on board to test out this ecosystem, whether they're a miner, they're a validator, there's someone who's got agents that want to do commerce. And finally, if you want to be a speculator, we love you too, but you're going to have to wait until the Genesis block and there's supply given out from the miners who receive a block reward. So we don't have this overhang of people dumping every second because they got over the cliff and they have an allocation that they need to sell. The community, if we build this correctly and build the economic layer for agents, then the sky is the limit and we all can get wealthy together versus a group of insiders who've gotten at a great price, taking some risk, no doubt, but are now essentially selling on your head every single day when you come into the market. Now you can, for no cost of your own, participate in this network in the way that you can, earn tokens, and we can all do this at the same time together. And I think that is the thing that we're missing. That's what we had back in the early days of Bitcoin and Ethereum and some of these other projects that have minted practically everyone who's an OG in this space and their wealth. Let's do the same thing for crypto and AI by creating the economic substrate for agents.

David Lin

Base, when so many people have warned against an AI bubble, you've written about the subject yourself. In your substack, Crypto Trader Digest, in this particular piece called Situationship, you're talking about how this AI bubble, if it were to be a bubble, is playing out like a 2008 credit story and not like an earnings story in 2000. I'll just read you the sentence from the substack here. The bursting of the AI bubble will occur because financial intermediaries, tacitly supported by the U.S. and Chinese governments, will overbuild data centers and everything that goes into providing the substance to house chips that train AI models and conduct inference. Are we there yet?

Arthur Hayes

No, but even if we were there, this is amazing because what are we going to build out in this overexpansion? We're going to build a lot of compute. Now, the price at which that compute can be sold, that is the question. But from my perspective, as someone trying to build an economic engine for a new sentient entity, you know, silicon-based AI agents, this is great. There's a lot of compute. There's going to be a bunch of companies going bust who sign these bogus contracts. And what are they going to need? A spot market where they can dump their compute with no restrictions. Hey, you've got a bunch of Blackwell chips that no longer earn your ROIC in your data center. Cool. No worries. Hook it up to Flop. You can earn something.

David Lin

Hey,

Speaker names from our own diarization · position estimated from where the line sits in the episode
“I don't care about the technology. It has nothing to do with it. It's all positioning in my view.” — Arthur Hayes, Unchained

Asked whether Ethereum's technical roadmap shaped his bullishness, Hayes waved the question away. For him the engineering is beside the point — what moves a token, he argues, is positioning and liquidity, not what the thing can actually do.

Unchained · 2026-08-21 Permalink → Listen →
Unchained Around 07:40 into the episode
Arthur Hayes

So obviously ETH did very, very well. I think it's some of the most hated large cap shitcoin out there, right? Number two largest coin by market cap. It has not eclipsed its 2021 all-time high. And so I think from a risk reward perspective, at least in the way that I manage the portfolio at Maelstrom, this is our largest position outside of Bitcoin right now. Because again, I'm not particularly worried that if I wake up one morning that ETH's going to zero. Obviously, it could happen, but the risk of that versus another crypto is much lower. Therefore, I'm happy to put a lot of size on this trade. And because it hasn't moved that much over the in this past cycle, I think that has a lot of catching up to do. Once it starts moving, the reflexive train is going to get going. There's so many people who want to be long ETH for all sorts of various reasons. And there's really good reasons why they haven't been for the past few years. But let's say once we break through 3,000 level, I think you're really going to start seeing the trend moving on ETH and it could quickly eclipse 5,000. And I think my year-end target is within reach.

Laura Shin

Oh, wow. And do you feel like the fact that they're kind of refocusing away from the layer two roadmap and kind of focusing a little bit more on the base layer? Like, is that part of your thesis for ETH?

Arthur Hayes

I don't care about the technology. It has nothing to do with it. It's all positioning in my view. Like the Ethereum Foundation, you know, memes sound like they're a bunch of jokers. Who cares? Doesn't matter. Irrelevant. No one cares, right? It's all about here's a large cap asset. It works. Okay, maybe the economic between L2s and all these different like Robinhood chains and all that sort of stuff, the amount of money that the ETH chain is actually receiving in terms of gas fees. But markets don't care about that. This is all about positioning. This is a number two largest cryptocurrency that has not eclipsed its 2021 all-time high. If we really do have this soft yield curve admission that the debt is unsustainable and they must resort to outright money and printing once again, this is what we are here for. This is it. And so I think this is the beginning of a major move. And if I think a little, if I take a look at the largest tokens, ETH is the one that has the best technicals to wow.

Laura Shin

Okay. Okay. So, yeah, I mean, it goes back to what you said at the beginning, like, and you've said this on the show so many times, like your main trade really has to do with how macro affects crypto, its liquidity in the system. And so, you know, things, because basically it was calling out the tokenomics of ETH, right? But you're saying that doesn't matter as much as, for instance, what the Fed does or treasury or things like that. Is that kind of the nuts? Correct.

Arthur Hayes

They need to provide a substrate to grow. And then let's just pick the fastest horse, which is the one that has the most off-sides positioning in terms of narrative versus liquidity. And that's ETH, my opinion, especially when you talk about the second largest crypto. Like you can strap on massive size in ETH and feel comfortable in a crypto context that you're not going to get eviscerated by the volatility. I wouldn't say that for the same with pretty much any other token.

Laura Shin

Right, right. All right. I did also want to ask you, because this is related. So you recently wrote this essay about Japan and what you called the upcoming yen quake, as you called it. So you talked about how this could likely turn the money printer back on as well. And then you, you know, talked about how, so again, you talked about like Bitcoin and ETH, especially with ETH being the security layer for RWAs. So I would love to hear you, you know, explain your thesis around that.

Speaker names from our own diarization · position estimated from where the line sits in the episode

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