KM

Katrina Mulligan

Things Katrina Says on Podcasts

Previously ran national-security programs before moving into AI, on 3 Takeaways arguing America's AI lead is measured by the wrong scoreboard, model counts instead of real-world adoption.

Where to Find Them

Katrina Mulligan has been a guest on 3 Takeaways™ .

Recently: “The Hidden Weakness in America's AI Lead (#315)” on 3 Takeaways™ (August 2026).

What They Said

“Brenda from HR does not need 12 choices when she's typing a query into a chatbot.” — Katrina Mulligan, 3 Takeaways™

Her case that America's AI lead is measured by the wrong scoreboard: model count and benchmark wins, when what decides adoption is whether ordinary workers can actually use the thing.

3 Takeaways™ · 2026-08-18 Permalink → Listen →
3 Takeaways™ Around 12:26 into the episode
Katrina Mulligan

We have a lot of experience at OpenAI implementing AI transformations. And so we have a lot of insight and data about what works and what really makes a difference. And it has been consistently true that the biggest predictor of whether an organization will have a successful AI transformation or not is the extent to which their C-suite uses it. The people at the very top of the organization, it's whether they themselves are using the technology in their own work. And that is something that's important for government to really take on board because it's not enough to just have a bottom-up approach where you just give everybody access to the tool and hope for the best. I always say, you don't get fit by reading about working out and you do not get good at understanding how AI is going to transform your organization by reading about it or going to a panel discussion about it. You have to be using it and getting in reps and sets yourself.

Lynn Thoman

And what's the biggest mistake that you see leaders making when they try to adopt AI?

Katrina Mulligan

Probably the biggest one is building model gardens. And what I mean by that is the belief that the thing that you really need is just access to the maximum number of tools in a single place so that people can have access to 12 or 20 different models at their fingertips and that that's what success looks like. That to me is a mistake for a number of reasons. One, it's really expensive. You're buying every model and you're making it all available. Number two, Brenda from HR does not need 12 choices when she's typing a query into a chatbot. That does not actually materially benefit. And in fact, I think it creates a lot of friction in terms of how the general population uses AI. I do think that model choice is really important, but for basic usage of chats, I do think that model gardens are something that we will look back on and think that was probably not a good thing for us to have spent that much effort on.

Lynn Thoman

America and China are taking fundamentally different Approaches to AI. What are the differences and what are the implications?

Katrina Mulligan

I think there are a few big differences. Number one, trust in AI is just wildly different. And that opens up a very different surface area for China to explore and to create public support for things that it's doing that I don't see here in the United States. China is also much more heavily involved in the development of AI than the U.S. government is. And some of that is a feature of the way that their society operates very differently from ours. The CCP and the Chinese government in particular has more of a direct seat at the frontier AI table than the U.S. government currently does. Although we are starting to see the U.S. assert its prerogatives in different ways, mostly around model safety and model releases. But I still think that fundamentally there's a different relationship that China has with the AI industry than the relationship that the U.S. has. In some ways, for the better, in some ways, for the worse. I also think that the Chinese government and the CCP have moved faster to recognize AI as fundamentally an infrastructure play and to make strategic investments in infrastructure as part of their strategy. That is happening in the U.S. AI ecosystem, but it's happening because the companies are making those investments and because private industry is making those investments, not because the government has decided it wants to make a big play in that area.

Lynn Thoman

Could America build the world's best AI and still lose?

Speaker names from our own diarization · position estimated from where the line sits in the episode
“The biggest one from where I sit is that this is really the first time in American history that a technology of this consequence is being developed exclusively by the private sector with no government involvement.” — Katrina Mulligan, 3 Takeaways™

Mulligan ran national-security programs before working on AI. Nuclear, space, the internet — every previous technology of this weight was born inside or alongside the state. This one is not, and she argues most of what feels unprecedented about AI follows from that.

3 Takeaways™ · 2026-08-18 Permalink → Listen →
3 Takeaways™ Around 05:07 into the episode
Katrina Mulligan

It is. And it's because, you know, we've long anticipated that eventually the models would get good enough that they would begin to conduct the research that improves themselves. And this idea, which is known in the AI industry as recursive self-improvement, is not quite upon us yet, but it's getting really close. And so like, I can't even think five years into the future in terms of where this technology will be by then because it's so impossible. It's so non-linear at this point. And we're really reaching much more of an exponential.

Lynn Thoman

What are other ways that make this AI revolution fundamentally different from every tech revolution before it?

Katrina Mulligan

The biggest one from where I sit is that this is really the first time in American history that a technology of this consequence is being developed exclusively by the private sector with no government involvement. You think back to the advent of electricity, nuclear fusion, the internet, the Human Genome Project, GPS. All of those are examples of technologies that were developed with government as a stakeholder in the development of the technology. They had a seat at the frontier table. They may not have been driving the whole thing, but they had at least a finger on the steering wheel. That is not true about AI. And it's really unique in that all the AI labs are operating really independently of government and government doesn't have a major AI initiative that can in any way compete with or compare with what is happening in private industry. And I think that's not necessarily a bad thing or a cause to be concerned, but it's been a bit uncomfortable for government and destabilizing for how we normally think about how government involvement and technological advancements should proceed. And I think it gives the government maybe more blind spots or at least different blind spots than the government would have if they were involved in the creation or the genesis or were somehow a direct stakeholder in the development of the technology.

Lynn Thoman

Most people think AI is chat GPT. What's the much bigger story that they're missing?

Katrina Mulligan

Well, let me start by saying ChatGPT is pretty awesome. Chat is kind of the entry. It's the gateway. What it did that is phenomenal is it took the barrier almost entirely away, the technical barrier to regular people of all kinds being able to access and use this technology and experience its benefits. You don't have to be a developer. You don't have to know anything about technology. But for enterprises and particularly for government and also for the future, if you're like envisioning like, where is this all headed? It is really workflow transformation that is going to be the central thing. And it is the idea that every organization, whether it's a government or an enterprise, has some number of core workflows that are essential to what they do. If you're a drug manufacturer, it's like the process of evaluating and testing different types of pharmaceuticals. If you're the intelligence community, the analytic workflow and the collection workflows are good examples. Every workflow you can imagine has the potential to be transformed using AI. And it doesn't mean replaced. Notice that I'm not using replacement terminology because there are parts of those workflows that can be enhanced or changed or maybe made more efficient using AI. But there are also in every single one of those workflows parts that can't be. When I look ahead, I see chat, particularly for government, as being kind of necessary but insufficient. I think where government in particular needs to go, we aren't there yet, but we're on the path, is really starting to reimagine what might be possible if we, you know, thought about our core workflows in a different way.

Lynn Thoman

Two years ago, AI seemed impressive, but limited. Today, it reasons. What changed?

Speaker names from our own diarization · position estimated from where the line sits in the episode