Asked whether Lula's re-election means Brazil can reach zero deforestation by 2030, the journalist says the obstacle is structural: the cattle and soy economy that drives clearing is the same under either president.
And now that Flavio Bolsonaro has fled to the U.S., his father, Jair Bolsonaro, is under house arrest. Does this mean Lula will be able to execute on his goal and reach zero deforestation by 2030?
Well, it's hard to tell. And the main
reason is that Brazil has taken several years ago a macroeconomic decision to deforest. And when I say that, it's because of the economics behind deforestation. Brazil has built an enormous commodity economy around activities that put pressures on forests. It's a global leader in beef and soy productions. And cattle region is by far the largest driver of Amazon deforestation. This infrastructure, it doesn't depend on Bolsonaro or Lula. It's already there.
And so what will be needed to really go to zero deforestation? Like if this is really macroeconomic policy for such a long time, how much of a change can Lula bring to actually go all the way?
It's to change the economy in the Amazon. It's a very tough task. You've been to Belain last year. You've seen a lot of discussions on forest restoration, agroforestry, bioeconomy. But so far, none of these sectors has reached anything close to the scale of cattle, soy, mining, or infrastructure…
expanded agriculture.