Mateer, of Barclays, asked whether "energy transition" is still a useful frame. He says Barclays still uses the term, but the neat, tidy transition people expected a decade ago missed how fast demand for every kind of energy would keep growing.
I think it's a race for three different things. We're looking at energy security, certainly accelerated by the events of this year, which I'm sure
…it's been very fiercely debated the use of the word transition. People say we're not really transitioning from one thing to another. On the other hand, other people would say, well, the system is definitely changing in various ways. And so it does make sense to use that word. Where do you stand?
We still use that word. So at Barclays, we still talk about the energy transition, but the way we talk about it has changed. So if you go back 10 years, I think the broad conception of the transition was that it would be relatively neat and tidy. It's been anything but, right? And what I think the market missed was the demand piece of it. So demand has continued to accelerate for energy in all forms. So if you look at last year, record year for demand for oil, record year for gas, record year for coal, which I think much of the Western world left for dead, but demand for that is still growing. And at the same time, you are trying to transition. So rather than replacement, it's become more a story about energy addition instead of just a neat transition where it would move from one to the other.
Yeah. But as you say, the world or much of the world is still trying to transition in the sense of moving to a lower carbon energy system.
Yes, very much. So if you look at our demand growth expectations for energy are above trend now for the next 25 years or so, 1.9% a year, which doesn't sound like much, but when you compound that to 2050, it's actually a big number. But the renewables piece of that is over 3%. So still the fastest…
And how is that expectation you have? And how have your views on the outlook changed as a result of the crisis we've been going through this year? We're still, as we speak, crude oil is about $100 a barrel. Gas prices are very high in Europe, anywhere that's reliant on LNG. It's very clear when you…