Nathan Labenz asked how seriously governments now take superintelligence. Predd says the trends in governance are moving fast, but there still aren't nearly enough people taking it as seriously as they should.
Great to be here. Thanks, Nathan, for having us.
…ASI seriously as I think probably all four of us think they should? I've seen a lot of signs that I didn't expect to see this soon, but I also see a lot of indicators where I feel like, eh, maybe they're not, you know, so serious after all. It's a little bit hard for me to read from the outside.
So I'll take a first swing at this. Ben Boudreaux may have sharper answers in this, but here we go. It is quite remarkable the moment we're in. When the Center for the Geopolitics of AGI was launched two and a half or three years ago, it was such that we kind of had to whisper AGI for fear of being thought of as too out there, too consumed by science fiction scenarios. It didn't deter us or scare us from doing the kind of work that we've been doing, which is to think about the implications of frontier AI that could advance to that threshold. But nonetheless, that was the climate. And it is quite remarkable that now you can't get into a meeting without calling it super intelligence. So times have changed. The other thing that we, one of the things that we…
I'd just add that I think we are seeing lots of signs that the U.S. government has become more aware of the type of strategic importance that this technology may bring. But it's not, I think, clear that the U.S. has settled on a strategy, nor, I think, have the frontier companies. And that might be…
Yeah, I think that's a great bit of foreshadowing for the strategy document as a whole, because, you know, spoiler, it kind of leads up to this idea of building the capacity to commit to a strategy once we sort of see a couple more cards turned over and have a better sense of what actually is the…
So, our work started with trying to answer one question, which is which national strategy is the best one for managing the transition to superintelligence. And the bottom line up front there is: we believe there's just too much uncertainty right now, and none of the archetypal strategies for…