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MW Mike Webster On Stock Market Today With IBD

“We're now in this post-Reg FD world, which all that means is you get four times a year, every one of your stocks is likely going to gap way up or way down because nobody knows what those earnings are going to look like. Back in the day, before Reg FD came out, it was baked into the charts. And that's what technical analysis was really based off of: the inside information that was out there that all the big players had, and you didn't see these gaps. … The government tried to do something good, which was commendable, but there's sometimes negative, unintended consequences.”

Stock Market Today With IBD · October 2026

“We're now in this post-Reg FD world, which all that means is you get four times a year, every one of your stocks is likely going to gap way up or way down because nobody knows what those earnings are going to look like. Back in the day, before Reg FD came out, it was baked into the charts. And that's what technical analysis was really based off of: the inside information that was out there that all the big players had, and you didn't see these gaps. … The government tried to do something good, which was commendable, but there's sometimes negative, unintended consequences.” — Mike Webster, Stock Market Today With IBD

Context

After a hard sell-off during earnings season, Webster argues nobody can predict direction around earnings and offers a regulatory explanation for why big earnings-day gaps are now so common.

Transcript

Stock Market Today With IBD Around 06:51 into the episode
Mike Webster

I was born. It's been so long. I forgot what you look like.

alissa coram

…getting rejected at the 50-day moving average. We can also check out the RSP down eight-tenths of a percent. So the average stock holding up quite a bit better than the indexes here, Webby. But let's just rip off the band-aid and start with the NASDAQ 26,000. Not an area of support any longer.

Mike Webster

Yeah, not at all. Obviously, look, it looks ugly. And I think there is a very obvious thing on the chart there. We're a magnet for the 200 day. Once the news started coming out that the market didn't like, you know, it's an earnings season. And as you said, we have the election next week, which is, you know, as to the uncertainty. And of course, we had the Fed this week, which ended up kind of being a non-event because he did what everyone expected. He did have a chance to surprise the market. And, but he didn't, which was, we could talk about that later if we want. But the reality is, we could have been up as much yesterday and today as we were down yesterday and today if the earnings would have come out differently. That's just the reality of it. So there is no one with a crystal ball. Everyone who is negative or is going to pound their chest that they were right. But the reality is you're in earnings season and you don't know because we're now in this post-reg FD world, which all that means is you get four times a year, every one of your stocks is likely going to gap way up or way down because nobody knows what those earnings are going to look like. Back in the day, you know, before a few decades ago, when Reg FD came out, it was baked into the charts. And that's what technical analysis was really based off of: the inside information that was out there…

alissa coram

the reactions of big companies being in the double digit percentage declines. Yeah. Anecdotally feels pretty heavy this quarter.

Mike Webster

It really does. And we could probably do an equal weight version of that as well as a market cap weighted version. And these are the types of things that you're seeing. Look at those massive numbers. Those are at the bottom there, you know, year over year for this quarter up nearly 4,000% on…

alissa coram

50% off the highs.

Speaker names come from our own diarization. The position is estimated from where the line sits in the episode.

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