“Anthropic is short of compute still. It's not that they're running out of users. They're short of compute and they just couldn't serve everybody that they wanted to serve. And they had to throttle people and delay signups, and that hurt their growth. I don't know that that's true, but there are a lot of things in the S1 that point in that direction.”
The Circuit · Tech Strategy & Big Tech · November 2026
Context
Jay Goldberg was walking through Anthropic's amended S-1, which showed sequential growth slowing sharply, and why he thinks the market misread it. He points to an earlier compute outage and heavy spot-market compute purchases as signs that supply, not demand, held growth back.
Transcript
…bottlenecks will get resolved. So for the first time, in the last 30 days, I've had a lot of people come to me talking about gluts of GPUs. And I don't think we're there yet, but maybe some people are looking down, looking at 2028 thinking, oh, we're going to have too many GPUs at some point.
…their paradigm, that once we get through all that, the enterprise is just going to be ripe in terms of dollars that come here. It's just, we've got to get over this. They have to go through such a difficult transition that they've never had to do before to get ready for agents in their enterprise.
Yeah. So I think if we build a counter thesis to what's taking place, I think there's a few data points here that would point very much in the direction you're talking about. And very much against. What the market seems to be thinking this week. And the first was Anthropics S1, right? They amended their S1 early in the week and they gave Q3 numbers. And the big problem with the Q3 numbers was that their growth slowed pretty dramatically. They went from like 150% sequential growth to 40% sequential growth, which is a big decline and a big issue for a company that's going to go public in theory soon. And lots of people said, oh, that's it. Everybody has coded all the things they're going to code and they're not getting the growth because everybody wants to code to Hazen, right? And I certainly understand that. I've made similar arguments in the past. But if you read deeper into the S1, you realize that earlier in the year, they had an outage, like March, April. They had an outage for a day where you just didn't work. And in the S1, they disclose that that was because they ran out of compute. So now imagine you're a company, you're on…
Yeah. Yeah. And there's. There's two other parts to this, right? I mean, you know, we, the first half of our survey was CIO, CTO with a bit of security, and then we did one with CSOs as well that I'm going to publish this week. And like, you can't come away from all of this data without realizing…
I think oddly, I'm more bullish on this than you are. Right. I actually think this is happening sooner rather than later. I think you're 100% right. All these complex issues have to get sorted out. I just, my, my intuition right now is that a lot, that a surprising number of people have done a…
so, dude, because like we've talked about, enterprise either funds this cycle or it doesn't. Like, like this is literally like everybody's like, how are we going to pay for AI? And the answer is enterprise. Like they will be the first customers that fund the next few years of this because we don't…
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