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Start free trial →Uncapped with Jack Altman · Startups & Venture · November 2026
Jack Altman asked what drove the recent pullback in AI infrastructure stocks. Ev says the market had extrapolated fast lab revenue growth into huge data center buildout estimates, and those estimates have now been cut.
derivative on the growth. Looked like it was going to do extrapolated trillion
of revenue next year. Yeah.
…there, folks were pricing in something like 70 plus gigawatts for next year outside of China of new AI data center capacity built. Now it looks more like 40 to 50 gigawatts of data center capacity outside of China. And so you bring down that estimate. That's 40 to 70, that's like a 40% decrease on the low end of the new estimate. And that is a huge haircut to all the numbers in the AI infotrade. And at a deeper level, when you get down to it, the revenues from the AI ecosystem just aren't big enough at this point. And they're not growing fast enough at this point to justify the amount of capex that's being contemplated for the next two years. So that does two things. One, it brings down the overall capex numbers and estimates, and midterms, which we'll talk about, is also a part of this. But it also makes people doubt the ROI on all the capex that's happening. And so then for the players that are in maybe a more tenuous position relative to Microsoft and Meta and Google, who have billions and billions of dollars of free cash flow and…
I mean, you kind of have to start from the consumption of tokens, you know, in sort of like the way that hedge fund people, you know, you'll sometimes see them like standing outside a store and like trying to like assess what's actually happening in terms of like retail demand. You almost have to…
Yeah, again, last time we were on air, we joked about how the AI trade was basically built on the month-to-month net new ARR estimates from Anthropic and OpenAI. That's right. Which felt ridiculous. But if you think about it, it's like these analysts have just gotten, they've gotten the market to a…
a Sesame Street guy now, you know, a lighter triangle in there.