Ben Bajarin
CEO and Principal Analyst at Creative Strategies, a technology research firm, covering semiconductors, AI infrastructure and product adoption.
“I think everybody wants to be Credo. Credo's approach, plus if you had networking silicon, is very interesting. Marvell has that networking silicon, Broadcom similarly… My theory is they're afraid of disruption. They see the signs on the wall that they're not going to have the moat or the leverage that they have much longer… I think they fear disruption and commoditization of this space.”
The Circuit · Tech Strategy & Big Tech · November 2026
Context
The hosts were discussing reported Marvell talks to buy Lumentum in an all-stock deal, and Ben asked why Lumentum would agree. His theory: optical component makers need to join networking-silicon companies before vertical integration squeezes them.
Transcript
I mean, yes, but okay, but why would Lumentum agree to that? Like, what does Lumentum know? What do they know that's coming that would make them agree to this?
You tell me. I'm very curious now. You have a theory?
…mix? NVIDIA? You know, like Marvell is not the only buyer, if I'm right, that in that networking to optical needs to verticalize and you want to control more parts of that supply chain down to the physical lasers as a component. Why just Marvell? Like if you're willing to go stock only, go hit up NVIDIA. Like, you know what I mean? Like there's more buyers here for this if this is right. But I think they fear disruption and commoditization of this space. And that's the writing on the wall that I think they are wrestling with or have concluded to. But regardless, I think verticalization here makes a ton of sense.
I think that's a very bearish take on optical.
Why?
Because what you're saying is it's the optical.
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