Anthony Pompliano
An investor and founder of Professional Capital Management, Anthony Pompliano is active across public and private markets with stakes in more than 300 companies...
“The fat protocol thesis was wrong. I think the fat model thesis is wrong as well. But it doesn't mean that it's a zero. It just means that it doesn't take 100%. Maybe it takes 40% of the value.”
The Pomp Podcast · October 2026
Pompliano compares AI with crypto's old "fat protocol" thesis, which held that nearly all value would go to base layers like Bitcoin and Ethereum and turned out wrong. He argues the idea that OpenAI and Anthropic capture all of AI's value will fail the same way, with apps and infrastructure taking a share.
Transcript
…now, most companies I think are going to want to own their full stack. Big companies are going to be slower. Small companies are already doing it. And so the trend to me is like that there is way more headwind here than just like, have we ever talked on this podcast about the fat protocol thesis?
No. No?
…has called it this yet, but there's basically this like fat model thesis that people have had for a lot for a couple of years, which is like all of the value is going to accrue just to OpenAI or Anthropic. I think now, you know, UI and many others are realizing, hey, no, no, there's going to be apps. There's going to be infrastructure. There's going to be also value at the model layer. And so the fat protocol thesis was wrong. I think the fat model thesis is wrong as well. But it doesn't mean that it's a zero. It just means that it doesn't take 100%. Maybe it takes 40% of the value. There's still value in these other layers as well. And so companies have to choose where do they play in the stack and like, I'm going to put dollars out. Do I put it to the model companies? Do I put it to the infrastructure? Do I put it to, you know, open source? Where does my money go in that stack? It's not all going to go to the model companies.
And I, so you brought up the point that I think everyone listening should be paying attention to, which is we're getting caught too much. And I think this is where our original conversation went on this, which is if you focus on the economics of something, you're just, you're wasting your time.…
We're running out of time, but I have to ask you, did you see Elon's demo of his new cars? What are your thoughts?
You know, I've avoided talking about SpaceX. And I'm driving this into SpaceX for a reason because Elon has also said that he sees SpaceX as being bigger than the global economy. I want to put that in perspective of how my brain finally got to the place that he could be right. Okay. Okay. Now, do I…
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