“The take-or-pay contracts are a figment of people's imaginations. They don't exist. They've been there every single cycle, including with Micron. And guess what? When it comes time to take it or pay it, they do neither.”
Halftime Report · October 2026
Context
The panel was debating whether the AI build-out is near its peak after Amazon's report. Weiss argues that guaranteed purchase contracts won't hold up in a downturn and calls NVIDIA's deal-making circular vendor financing.
Transcript
…you know, so look, so the market's really clearly lining up. If you believe spending is going to last forever and continue to grow, and they'll realize the ROI near term. Or you think it's going to be like every, every other cycle. I believe that cycles are just that cycle. So Steve Liesman think.
I think you're right.
Although it's like, Jim Lebenthal me finish. Let me finish. So you see it now in the private markets, right? Where the internet companies are having trouble raising capital, where they're having trouble financing recent ones where people have pulled away from the financing. Say, we're not going to do it. Our book is full. And that's what happens. So the guaranteed, you know, the take-or-pay contracts are a figment of people's imaginations. They don't exist. They've been there every single cycle, including with Micron. And guess what? When it comes time to take it or pay it, they do neither. So
this was a three-year cycle and it's nearing its end.
No, I'm not saying that. I'm saying the growth in the cycle has near its end in terms of the equities, and now it's going to be back to valuation. Now you can value them on the numbers that you see in front of you today, but my view is those numbers come down, particularly, particularly for the…
get Bryn involved. Bryn Talkington think we've fixed your audio. I hope you had a chance to hear that conversation. And if so, what's your reaction to it?
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