“In 2028 we're going to have a whole bunch of fabs come online, the memory fabs. We're going to have a whole bunch of data centers coming online. It's also the year when it looks like a lot of the energy bottlenecks will get resolved. So for the first time, in the last 30 days, I've had a lot of people come to me talking about gluts of GPUs. I don't think we're there yet, but maybe some people are looking at 2028 thinking, oh, we're going to have too many GPUs at some point.”
The Circuit · Tech Strategy & Big Tech · November 2026
Context
Goldberg was explaining why analysts rolling 2028 into their models might be spooking chip stocks after last week's selloff. This is the origin of the "2028 GPU glut" theory in the episode title, though he stops short of endorsing it.
Transcript
But yeah, I mean, like, it was a weird, it was a weird day. I just, I had to like restart my stock, my stock application on my phone a couple of times because like, this can't be right. Like that, that one's down too. Like, what, what is going on
…I'll just say this too. Like, I feel like the sentiment then was exactly what you said. We agree next year and maybe the next year after is somewhat okay, barring some concerns of misses that just get hit. But it's like after that is now the question. It's just all going to bottom out after that.
Yeah, I think there are also two other sort of contributing factors that are occurred to me. One is, I mean, high frequency trading has been around for a long time. Automated trading has been around for a long time. I think there is some AI effect taking place, though. I think there are a lot of funds out there who are deep, deeply AI pilled and have gotten, have started using AI to design trading strategies. Not just automating the trades, but designing the trade strategies. And so I think there's a lot of elaborate trades in place, very complicated structured trades, which are basically just levered bets, which amplify returns on the way up and then amplify them on the way down too. I think there's a lot of that taking place. So there's a little bit of us all. Getting a little too smart for ourselves. That's one thing. The other thing, too, and maybe this is just a function of me, but like this is the time of year when we start adding years to our models, right? You start putting in 20, you start putting out 2028 numbers. And I think that's what's going on is a lot of people are putting out 28 numbers and going, oh, I have, like, I don't know what 2028 is. What assumptions did I use? And then you start, this is like people are literally thinking about…
Yeah. There was also a thesis that I saw a number of the big sell-siders kind of align on. I don't know if they all talk to each other. I know most don't necessarily read each other's notes, but there was a digestion year kind of baked into some things that kind of wavered and went back and forth.…
Yeah. So I think if we build a counter thesis to what's taking place, I think there's a few data points here that would point very much in the direction you're talking about. And very much against. What the market seems to be thinking this week. And the first was Anthropics S1, right? They amended…
Yeah. Yeah. And there's. There's two other parts to this, right? I mean, you know, we, the first half of our survey was CIO, CTO with a bit of security, and then we did one with CSOs as well that I'm going to publish this week. And like, you can't come away from all of this data without realizing…
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