“This is not a country that will capitulate because of this bombing campaign. Yet, this is the only card that Russia has to play and wants to play… This doesn't mean that this is the end of Ukraine. We're not looking right now at the end of the war, but we're looking at a kind of weakening that is potentially irreversible.”
The Daily (NYT) · October 2026
Asked whether Ukraine can innovate its way out of a winter of strikes aimed at cutting power and heat to its cities by up to 90%. He says Ukrainians know how to get through, but if the strategy works, Ukraine will come to any negotiations weakened and forced into concessions it wouldn't make today.
Transcript
…region. And all of this means also less money for the Ukrainian budget, which means less money for the Ukrainian war effort. And what do you do if you cannot buy enough weapons, if you cannot pay the salaries of your soldier? So, this is sort of a slow burn effort to wear down the entire country.
…feels as though we're at a moment now in which, if Russia's plan succeeds, if Russia is able to leave Ukrainian cities 90% without power in a country that experiences months and months of brutally cold temperatures, it's honestly difficult to see how even Ukraine can innovate its way out of this.
…capitulation, when the time comes for negotiations to properly resume, if this strategy of Russia is successful, Ukraine will be at a weak position and will be forced into concessions that it wouldn't want to do today. And even as Ukraine pushes through the winter, if it continues into next year without full Western military and financial support, it will emerge weaker economically, militarily. This doesn't mean that this is the end of Ukraine. We're not looking right now at the end of the war, but we're looking at a kind of weakening that is potentially irreversible. And that leaves Ukraine with very few options.
Constant, thank you so much for your time. We really appreciate it.
Thank you, Natalie.
We'll be right back.
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