“If AI had come in … 2009, when we were in a recession and we had slack and we had low interest rates and low inflation, it would have been a miracle. But it's coming now. And so it's still potentially a miracle. But it's having a lot more costs on the way to the miracle because it's so big and it's happening now.”

Okay. So AI is like enormous, enormous fiscal stimulus. It's just this tsunami of money going into the economy and supporting growth, not just in the U.S., but look at places like Taiwan and Korea as examples. I mean, it's global. If this were, and so it's a good thing, right? It is a good thing. It's helping growth. It's certainly helping stock markets. If you take the hyperscalers, they've done double the returns of the SP 500 since the end of 2022 when ChatGPT came out. I think if you just take four of those companies, Amazon, Alphabet, Meta, Microsoft, they're from N22 to now, they're up something like 270%. I mean, it's right. So a lot of wealth generation from that. So that's good. And again, it's happening in lots of countries. Good, good, good. Too much of a good thing is because it's happening when the economy is already fairly resilient. You have a low unemployment rate in the U.S. is 4.2%. You have inflation that's above the Fed's target. So you're adding all this stimulus to an already growing inflationary economy. And so it's too much of a good thing. It's too much of a good thing. And it's crowding out construction workers and inputs from non-data center construction. It's too much of a good thing because all of the AI debt being issued is crowding out demand for other corporate and now government debt. It's too much of a good thing because it's lifting growth and inflation to a level that central banks have to raise interest rates. And that's leading to this bond yield issue. So that's the too good of a good thing. The wrong time is partly because of the economic backdrop and it's partly because of the fiscal backdrop and the affordability backdrop. And with the fiscal backdrop, if you have all this AI debt and it's crowding out demand for treasuries at a time when treasury issuance is going up to fund these deficits, and again, we can play that story in France, UK, et cetera, et cetera, et cetera, it makes the fiscal crisis worse. And so this year, the U.S. is going to issue about $2 trillion of debt to fund the budget deficit. More and more of that's going to interest payments as rates go up, which adds to the debt. And then we have a slow-motion debt doom loop. And so that's the wrong time. If AI had come in 2020, 2009, when we were in a recession and we had slack and we had low interest rates and low inflation, it would have been a miracle. But it's coming now. And so it's still potentially a miracle. But it's having a lot more costs on the way to the miracle because it's so big and it's happening now. So that's my like thesis that's been gelling in my head. And I'm hoping to turn it into a proper research note to share with people soon.