Asked whether the sane move is to skip frothy seed pricing and just buy big late-stage companies, Naimi says a record number of VC firms have piled into that same idea in the last 18 months, making it consensus.
think that's probably
less competition there. It's
less competition. You could deploy large sums of capital into those companies and be a passive investor. I think it's probably a safe way to know that you have exposure to great companies. The main question is, if you're pricing those companies in today's environment, you need to kind of answer for yourself whether you believe it's 2019 or 2021. Because in 2021, you could have invested in Stripe at $100 billion and Stripe was a great company. It still is a great company, arguably one of the best. But today, Stripe is $179 billion, which is great. But that's what, like an 11, 12% IRR over five years, which by the way, is still better than like the bottom 75% of venture. So you can probably secure yourself a top quartile position in the venture market by backing the best companies at the highest prices because they are great companies and great companies tend to continue to be great companies. They do tend to compound over time. But I do think the thing that gives me a little concern around that strategy is how consensus the approach you described has just…
about the data companies where the narrative for years was this is more like a trade than a company? We need to arm all these models with tons of data, but once we have the data, we're going to be good. Seems like maybe that narrative has shifted and these things seem to be more persistent than one…
Data companies are kind of like a conundrum to most investors because I think the belief historically was these companies don't have long-term sustainability because eventually the people they sell the data to will get all the data they need and not need their data anymore. But I think people have…
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