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Decision Desk HQ
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Decision Desk HQ

Things Decision Says on Podcasts

Fast and reliable results and analysis for elections at every level, from federal to local. Find our analysis at https://decisiondeskhq.substack.com.

“Now, Ricketts remains favored to win, enjoying about a 4 in 5 chance of success in Decision Desk HQ's Senate forecast. While the polls are close, Ricketts's chances are helped by Nebraska's firmly red lean. Additionally, Republicans have taken Osborn more seriously this time around. The GOP's main outside group for Senate races — the Senate Leadership Fund PAC — recently increased its spending support for Ricketts from $7 million to $15 million.” — Decision Desk HQ on Pete Ricketts, Decision Desk HQ “Oregon Gov. Tina Kotek is arguably the most endangered Democratic governor on the ballot in 2026. After narrowly winning in 2022 over Republican Christine Drazan, Kotek has had myriad problems during her governorship, including an unpopular transportation tax that was undone by a ballot measure in May.” — Decision Desk HQ on Tina Kotek, Decision Desk HQ “Nevada’s gubernatorial contest features Gov. Joe Lombardo, the most endangered GOP incumbent governor on the ballot in 2026. Lombardo faces state Attorney General Aaron Ford, the Democratic nominee, in what looks to be an extremely close race.” — Decision Desk HQ on Joe Lombardo, Decision Desk HQ “Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz abandoned his reelection bid over the state’s Medicaid fraud scandal, producing an open-seat race. But Democrats’ chances of holding the governorship got a boost when popular Sen. Amy Klobuchar decided to seek the office.” — Decision Desk HQ on Amy Klobuchar, Decision Desk HQ “Gov. Gavin Newsom is term-limited, so California has an open-seat race for governor. The Golden State last voted in a Republican governor in 2006 — reelecting Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger — and the Democrats’ winning streak is likely to continue in 2026.” — Decision Desk HQ on Xavier Becerra, Decision Desk HQ “Swingy Arizona hosts a competitive gubernatorial election in November. Rep. Andy Biggs easily won a late July primary to capture the Republican nomination. Now he faces Democratic Gov. Katie Hobbs, but she looks somewhat favored in the general election over her GOP counterpart.” — Decision Desk HQ on Andy Biggs and Katie Hobbs, Decision Desk HQ “Michigan has an open-seat race for governor because Democratic Gov. Gretchen Whitmer is term-limited. The race to succeed her features a clash between Democratic Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson and Republican Rep. John James. In Decision Desk HQ’s average, Benson leads by 7 points, 49%-42%.” — Decision Desk HQ on Jocelyn Benson, Decision Desk HQ “Republican businessman Rick Jackson faces Democrat Keisha Lance Bottoms, the former mayor of Atlanta, in the increasingly swingy Peach State. In Decision Desk HQ’s polling average, the two contenders are tied at about 48%.” — Decision Desk HQ on Rick Jackson, Decision Desk HQ “Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley won a dramatic primary victory to become the Democratic nominee, and he faces Republican Rep. Tom Tiffany in the race to lead one of the country’s principal swing states. In Decision Desk HQ’s polling average, Crowley holds close to a 47%-43% edge.” — Decision Desk HQ on David Crowley, Decision Desk HQ “State Auditor Rob Sand is the only statewide-elected Democrat left in Iowa, but he currently leads GOP nominee Zach Lahn by about 7 points in Decision Desk HQ’s polling average, 51%-45%.” — Decision Desk HQ on Rob Sand, Decision Desk HQ “Republican Rep. Byron Donalds faces former Rep. David Jolly, a Republican-turned-Democrat. While Florida has recently had a clearer red lean, Donalds doesn’t hold a massive lead over Jolly: In Decision Desk HQ’s polling average, he is ahead about 49%-44%.” — Decision Desk HQ on Byron Donalds, Decision Desk HQ “Democratic Gov. Kathy Hochul once seemingly faced a difficult path to reelection. Coming off an underwhelming 53%-47% victory in 2022, Hochul faced poor approval ratings and a primary challenge from her lieutenant governor. But that challenge flopped, Hochul’s standing improved, and the electoral environment improved for Democrats.” — Decision Desk HQ on Kathy Hochul, Decision Desk HQ “But Abbot’s bid for a fourth term is shaping up to be a much closer contest. In Decision Desk HQ’s average, Abbott holds only around a 49%-46% edge over state Rep. Gina Hinojosa.” — Decision Desk HQ on Greg Abbott, Decision Desk HQ “In Ohio’s race for governor, Republican Vivek Ramaswamy, a 2024 presidential candidate, faces Democrat Amy Acton, the state’s former health director during the COVID-19 pandemic. The winner will succeed term-limited Republican Gov. Mike DeWine. In Decision Desk HQ’s average, Acton holds about a 48%-45% advantage.” — Decision Desk HQ on Dr. Amy Acton, Decision Desk HQ

Where to Find Them

Decision Desk HQ writes Decision Desk HQ .

Recently: “Nebraska tests if an independent can win in a deep-red state” on Decision Desk HQ (October 2026); “📈 Could Democrats actually flip Kansas’s Senate seat?” on Decision Desk HQ (October 2026); “Forecast Update: Democrats have more than 50% chance of flipping both Senate & House” on Decision Desk HQ (October 2026); “📈 The U.S. House seats most likely to flip in 2026” on Decision Desk HQ (October 2026); “📈 Peltola is a slight favorite to flip Alaska” on Decision Desk HQ (September 2026); “📈 Can Susan Collins outrun the polls in Maine again?” on Decision Desk HQ (September 2026).

What They Said

“Now, Ricketts remains favored to win, enjoying about a 4 in 5 chance of success in Decision Desk HQ's Senate forecast. While the polls are close, Ricketts's chances are helped by Nebraska's firmly red lean. Additionally, Republicans have taken Osborn more seriously this time around. The GOP's main outside group for Senate races — the Senate Leadership Fund PAC — recently increased its spending support for Ricketts from $7 million to $15 million.” — Decision Desk HQ on Pete Ricketts, Decision Desk HQ

From Decision Desk HQ's newsletter, published October 15, 2026, in a feature on Nebraska's Senate race between Sen. Pete Ricketts and independent Dan Osborn.

Decision Desk HQ · 2026-10-15 Permalink → Listen →
“Nevada’s gubernatorial contest features Gov. Joe Lombardo, the most endangered GOP incumbent governor on the ballot in 2026. Lombardo faces state Attorney General Aaron Ford, the Democratic nominee, in what looks to be an extremely close race.” — Decision Desk HQ on Joe Lombardo, Decision Desk HQ

Decision Desk HQ was reviewing its polling averages and forecasts for the 2026 governor races.

Decision Desk HQ · 2026-10-28 Permalink → Listen →
“Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz abandoned his reelection bid over the state’s Medicaid fraud scandal, producing an open-seat race. But Democrats’ chances of holding the governorship got a boost when popular Sen. Amy Klobuchar decided to seek the office.” — Decision Desk HQ on Amy Klobuchar, Decision Desk HQ

Decision Desk HQ was reviewing its polling averages and forecasts for the 2026 governor races.

Decision Desk HQ · 2026-10-28 Permalink → Listen →
“Gov. Gavin Newsom is term-limited, so California has an open-seat race for governor. The Golden State last voted in a Republican governor in 2006 — reelecting Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger — and the Democrats’ winning streak is likely to continue in 2026.” — Decision Desk HQ on Xavier Becerra, Decision Desk HQ

Decision Desk HQ was reviewing its polling averages and forecasts for the 2026 governor races.

Decision Desk HQ · 2026-10-28 Permalink → Listen →
“Swingy Arizona hosts a competitive gubernatorial election in November. Rep. Andy Biggs easily won a late July primary to capture the Republican nomination. Now he faces Democratic Gov. Katie Hobbs, but she looks somewhat favored in the general election over her GOP counterpart.” — Decision Desk HQ on Andy Biggs and Katie Hobbs, Decision Desk HQ

Decision Desk HQ was reviewing its polling averages and forecasts for the 2026 governor races.

Decision Desk HQ · 2026-10-28 Permalink → Listen →
“Michigan has an open-seat race for governor because Democratic Gov. Gretchen Whitmer is term-limited. The race to succeed her features a clash between Democratic Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson and Republican Rep. John James. In Decision Desk HQ’s average, Benson leads by 7 points, 49%-42%.” — Decision Desk HQ on Jocelyn Benson, Decision Desk HQ

Decision Desk HQ was reviewing its polling averages and forecasts for the 2026 governor races.

Decision Desk HQ · 2026-10-28 Permalink → Listen →
“Republican businessman Rick Jackson faces Democrat Keisha Lance Bottoms, the former mayor of Atlanta, in the increasingly swingy Peach State. In Decision Desk HQ’s polling average, the two contenders are tied at about 48%.” — Decision Desk HQ on Rick Jackson, Decision Desk HQ

Decision Desk HQ was reviewing its polling averages and forecasts for the 2026 governor races.

Decision Desk HQ · 2026-10-28 Permalink → Listen →
“Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley won a dramatic primary victory to become the Democratic nominee, and he faces Republican Rep. Tom Tiffany in the race to lead one of the country’s principal swing states. In Decision Desk HQ’s polling average, Crowley holds close to a 47%-43% edge.” — Decision Desk HQ on David Crowley, Decision Desk HQ

Decision Desk HQ was reviewing its polling averages and forecasts for the 2026 governor races.

Decision Desk HQ · 2026-10-28 Permalink → Listen →
“State Auditor Rob Sand is the only statewide-elected Democrat left in Iowa, but he currently leads GOP nominee Zach Lahn by about 7 points in Decision Desk HQ’s polling average, 51%-45%.” — Decision Desk HQ on Rob Sand, Decision Desk HQ

Decision Desk HQ was reviewing its polling averages and forecasts for the 2026 governor races.

Decision Desk HQ · 2026-10-28 Permalink → Listen →
“Republican Rep. Byron Donalds faces former Rep. David Jolly, a Republican-turned-Democrat. While Florida has recently had a clearer red lean, Donalds doesn’t hold a massive lead over Jolly: In Decision Desk HQ’s polling average, he is ahead about 49%-44%.” — Decision Desk HQ on Byron Donalds, Decision Desk HQ

Decision Desk HQ was reviewing its polling averages and forecasts for the 2026 governor races.

Decision Desk HQ · 2026-10-28 Permalink → Listen →
“Democratic Gov. Kathy Hochul once seemingly faced a difficult path to reelection. Coming off an underwhelming 53%-47% victory in 2022, Hochul faced poor approval ratings and a primary challenge from her lieutenant governor. But that challenge flopped, Hochul’s standing improved, and the electoral environment improved for Democrats.” — Decision Desk HQ on Kathy Hochul, Decision Desk HQ

Decision Desk HQ was reviewing its polling averages and forecasts for the 2026 governor races.

Decision Desk HQ · 2026-10-28 Permalink → Listen →
“But Abbot’s bid for a fourth term is shaping up to be a much closer contest. In Decision Desk HQ’s average, Abbott holds only around a 49%-46% edge over state Rep. Gina Hinojosa.” — Decision Desk HQ on Greg Abbott, Decision Desk HQ

The newsletter was reviewing the state of the Texas governor's race.

Decision Desk HQ · 2026-10-28 Permalink → Listen →
“In Ohio’s race for governor, Republican Vivek Ramaswamy, a 2024 presidential candidate, faces Democrat Amy Acton, the state’s former health director during the COVID-19 pandemic. The winner will succeed term-limited Republican Gov. Mike DeWine. In Decision Desk HQ’s average, Acton holds about a 48%-45% advantage.” — Decision Desk HQ on Dr. Amy Acton, Decision Desk HQ

Decision Desk HQ was reviewing its polling averages and forecasts for the 2026 governor races.

Decision Desk HQ · 2026-10-28 Permalink → Listen →

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US Politics