OJ

Oscar Jonsson

Things Oscar Says on Podcasts

Where to Find Them

Oscar Jonsson has been a guest on The Lawfare Podcast and The Lawfare Podcast: Patreon Edition .

Recently: “Lawfare Daily: ‘The Russian General Staff’ with Oscar Jonsson” on The Lawfare Podcast (November 2026); “Lawfare Daily: ‘The Russian General Staff’ with Oscar Jonsson” on The Lawfare Podcast: Patreon Edition (November 2026).

What They Said

“In the Russian system, the general staff takes the best and the brightest officers at quite an early age, late 20s, early 30s. You separate them from the branches and put them into the General Staff academies. It's basically its own profession. Whereas the Joint Staff in the US is significantly smaller than the general staff, which is maybe 10,000 in total or such, whereas the Joint Staff is around 1,500. Rough numbers.” — Oscar Jonsson, The Lawfare Podcast

Asked how the Russian General Staff compares to its US equivalent, Oscar Jonsson says it is understudied because Western observers assume it resembles the Joint Chiefs. Its career structure, size and command role are very different.

The Lawfare Podcast · 2026-11-12 Permalink → Listen →
The Lawfare Podcast Around 09:18 into the episode
Oscar Jonsson

…which was, you know, more of a couple of articles. But in that process, maybe in 2024 sometime, I kind of just decided, okay, this is going to be, this is going to be a book. Like, this is big enough to be a book. This is novel enough to be a book. So that's it. That's why that's why I wrote it.

Justin Sherman

…by giving us the 101 of the Russian General Staff’ going back in time. How did the Russian General Staff’ come about? And you talk about this in the book in some detail. How does the Russian General Staff’ compare to the role of the general staff in other countries, including the United States?

Oscar Jonsson

Yeah, I think, I mean, going back to when the general staff started, that's, you know, that's you can put very different starting points. The most recent important one is really the Second World War, the Great Fatherland War, as it's known in Russia, where it took its modern. Shape. But if you want to really answer it, you need to roll back all the way to Gustavus Adolfos when he revolutionized tactics. And I'm not saying that only because I'm a Swede. But when you started combining infantry, cavalry, light artillery, it just increased demands and complexity of the staff. And you couldn't have task-specific staff that you just threw together. You started to make it a permanent function. And this was the background to the Prussian general staff, which is probably the most original intellectual forefather for all the subsequent general staffs. But then the next push came in the late 19th century when you started to have telegraph, railroads, which meant that mobilization, logistics, and communications were so much faster, which basically meant you needed to do all the thinking and preparation in peacetime because the oft-repeated cliché is that wars are faster and faster, or you can do faster and faster…

Justin Sherman

A statement that could apply to quite a bit. Yeah, the size definitely stood out in your book when you would talk about that compared to other countries. So when Putin came to power, he started, of course, over the ensuing years, making a number of reforms to the military, to the intelligence and…

Oscar Jonsson

Yeah, I mean, just as you know, that when Putin came to power, he started very slowly, cautiously consolidating control of all of the parts of Russian society. I mean, this is maybe long forgotten now, where he's viewed more as an autocrat or maybe totalitarian that just controls everything.…

Justin Sherman

You describe how the general staff was at one point tasked with developing a plan for the wartime organization for the entire state, which obviously these days, and we'll get in a bit to the current war on Ukraine, but these days seems like quite a relevant thing that they would be tasked with this…

Speaker names come from our own diarization. The position is estimated from where the line sits in the episode.
“The general staff got responsibility for planning, but only the authority to coordinate with all the other agencies, which basically is nothing. You can call someone and say, hey, screw you, and then you have coordinated. Whereas if you command, you have the authority to send them places.” — Oscar Jonsson, The Lawfare Podcast

Discussing a 2013 task to design a wartime organisation for the whole Russian state, Oscar Jonsson explains why the military never gained command over agencies like the FSB. The effort fizzled out, which he reads as a sign of the military leadership's falling political influence.

The Lawfare Podcast · 2026-11-12 Permalink → Listen →
The Lawfare Podcast Around 13:26 into the episode
Oscar Jonsson

…staff that takes political fights, and then with the dismissal of the then chief of general staff, Yunu Balievsky, that is no more. Since then, the Russian General Staff’ has just not had that self-confidence, they're not taking political fights. They've been, let's say, a very loyal servant.

Justin Sherman

…days, and we'll get in a bit to the current war on Ukraine, but these days seems like quite a relevant thing that they would be tasked with this sort of statewide wartime organization plan. So what was that tasking? And did that result at the time in anything meaningful for the Russian General?

Oscar Jonsson

Yeah, again, this is an interesting concept. I think it's probably quite alien for an American listener, but it's actually quite similar to something we have in Sweden. In Sweden, it's called the total defense concepts, which is military defense and civilian defense. And it's everything the state needs to function in war. In Russia, you had the task was set out in 2013 that you needed to create a Vajenaya Organizatia Gusodarista, the wartime organization of the state. And it made a lot of power ministries nervous because, and it was also all of the Russian media, that the Russian military will get kind of command rights over all the other agencies. And that might feel like a bureaucratic distinction, but it's not. It's basically if the armed forces can tell the FSB to do XYZ, go ABC, that says something about hierarchy. And this was quite a long power struggle. It took seven years until it was resolved. And a lot of analysts speculated that the armed forces are going to be power grabbed. They're going to assume control of all the other agencies. And in the end, it all…

Justin Sherman

Did the Russian General Staff’ listeners can tell we're sort of marching towards the present. Did the Russian General Staff’ play any role in the initial invasion of Ukraine? Ukraine over a decade now ago? And if so, what was that role? And if not, you know, why did they not play a role?

Oscar Jonsson

Yeah, that's a great question. And I mean, the book is divided in kind of first, hey, what does the general staff do? A little bit of background. And then it's generating military theory, it's commanding the armed forces, and it's influencing politics. And then the last chapter, which is almost a…

Justin Sherman

Okay, we might come back to that sanctions point. You mentioned the GRU, which is a great segue. You know, this to me is one of, I mean, there's many interesting, obviously, parts of your book, but this was one that really stood out to me and I thought was very interesting in terms of how you…

Speaker names come from our own diarization. The position is estimated from where the line sits in the episode.
“At no point did the Russian Chief of General Staff publicly stand up and say, hey guys, if we want to invade the largest country in Europe, then it's not going to cut it with 120,000 men. And by the way, we're a mobilization force, we need to mobilize, which is none of what happened. It was quite obvious that it was a security services plan: we're going to walk in there with a coup d'etat, we're not going to face serious resistance, it's going to be over in 10 days.” — Oscar Jonsson, The Lawfare Podcast

Asked how much influence the Russian General Staff has in Putin's system, Oscar Jonsson argues its political weight has shrunk steadily since the 2000s. The 2022 invasion is his main evidence: military expertise did not shape the decision.

The Lawfare Podcast · 2026-11-12 Permalink → Listen →
The Lawfare Podcast Around 21:43 into the episode
Oscar Jonsson

…the Defense Intelligence Agency. What they're doing, like looking at tanks and stuff. But the thing is, the GRU is also doing a little bit of CIA and it's also doing a little bit of NSA. And I think depending on which of these doors you open, you actually probably have different chains of commands.

Justin Sherman

Yeah. So beyond the GRU, then, because obviously that's just one part, what are the other major roles and functions that the general staff has today? And how much influence do you think they have in the current de-Putin system?

Oscar Jonsson

No, I think those are really, I mean, the General Staff’ does a lot of things by virtue of being on top of the military system. But in terms of kind of what's analytically interesting and relevant, I group them into command, being the ultimate command post of the Russian armed forces and the architecture for commanding the Russian armed forces, military districts, the joint strategic commands from the highest levels. It is generating military theory and preparing Russia and developing strategic foresight, preparing Russia for future war and for future conflict and preparing the entire state, putting the intellectual foundation to where Russia should be. And I mean, foresight and strategic planning is really important in the Russian system. And then as a political actor, and you ask how much influence? Well, I think the trajectory from this book is really one way. It's from a very strong and influential general staff that played politics in the 90s and the 2000s down to in the 2010s and 2020s, a very subordinated servant that does not speak truth to power or at least voice their best military advice. And I mean, the 2022 invasion is just the culmination of this. It is a long trend, but at no point did the Russian Chief of General Staff’ publicly…

Speaker 1

Hey, folks, Ben Wittis here. And I want to tell you about a time long ago

Oscar Jonsson

when my household was carrying some debt. It was student debt by current standards. It wasn't the biggest deal in the world, but it felt like a big deal. We didn't make a lot of money. We would pay some money and the amount just didn't go down. Then over time, our household income went up. And all…

Speaker 1

Verizon knows that holiday math can be complicated. Okay,

Speaker names come from our own diarization. The position is estimated from where the line sits in the episode.

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