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OJ Oscar Jonsson On The Lawfare Podcast

“At no point did the Russian Chief of General Staff publicly stand up and say, hey guys, if we want to invade the largest country in Europe, then it's not going to cut it with 120,000 men. And by the way, we're a mobilization force, we need to mobilize, which is none of what happened. It was quite obvious that it was a security services plan: we're going to walk in there with a coup d'etat, we're not going to face serious resistance, it's going to be over in 10 days.”

The Lawfare Podcast · Policy · November 2026

“At no point did the Russian Chief of General Staff publicly stand up and say, hey guys, if we want to invade the largest country in Europe, then it's not going to cut it with 120,000 men. And by the way, we're a mobilization force, we need to mobilize, which is none of what happened. It was quite obvious that it was a security services plan: we're going to walk in there with a coup d'etat, we're not going to face serious resistance, it's going to be over in 10 days.” — Oscar Jonsson, The Lawfare Podcast

Context

Asked how much influence the Russian General Staff has in Putin's system, Oscar Jonsson argues its political weight has shrunk steadily since the 2000s. The 2022 invasion is his main evidence: military expertise did not shape the decision.

Transcript

The Lawfare Podcast Around 21:43 into the episode
Oscar Jonsson

…the Defense Intelligence Agency. What they're doing, like looking at tanks and stuff. But the thing is, the GRU is also doing a little bit of CIA and it's also doing a little bit of NSA. And I think depending on which of these doors you open, you actually probably have different chains of commands.

Justin Sherman

Yeah. So beyond the GRU, then, because obviously that's just one part, what are the other major roles and functions that the general staff has today? And how much influence do you think they have in the current de-Putin system?

Oscar Jonsson

No, I think those are really, I mean, the General Staff’ does a lot of things by virtue of being on top of the military system. But in terms of kind of what's analytically interesting and relevant, I group them into command, being the ultimate command post of the Russian armed forces and the architecture for commanding the Russian armed forces, military districts, the joint strategic commands from the highest levels. It is generating military theory and preparing Russia and developing strategic foresight, preparing Russia for future war and for future conflict and preparing the entire state, putting the intellectual foundation to where Russia should be. And I mean, foresight and strategic planning is really important in the Russian system. And then as a political actor, and you ask how much influence? Well, I think the trajectory from this book is really one way. It's from a very strong and influential general staff that played politics in the 90s and the 2000s down to in the 2010s and 2020s, a very subordinated servant that does not speak truth to power or at least voice their best military advice. And I mean, the 2022 invasion is just the culmination of this. It is a long trend, but at no point did the Russian Chief of General Staff’ publicly…

Speaker 1

Hey, folks, Ben Wittis here. And I want to tell you about a time long ago

Oscar Jonsson

when my household was carrying some debt. It was student debt by current standards. It wasn't the biggest deal in the world, but it felt like a big deal. We didn't make a lot of money. We would pay some money and the amount just didn't go down. Then over time, our household income went up. And all…

Speaker 1

Verizon knows that holiday math can be complicated. Okay,

Speaker names come from our own diarization. The position is estimated from where the line sits in the episode.

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