Asked how big a financial anomaly the AI investment cycle is, the macro analyst calls AI a revolution on the scale of the jet engine. He uses the fiber-optic boom to argue that investors can lose even when the technology wins, especially with competition from China.
…point, my argument would be: if you're getting these financial stresses, the asset to own is government debt. And that's what it may be that spreads widen, credit spreads widen, but that's both a combination of government yields falling or staying where they are and corporate yields blowing out.
…large that all previous models just don't break. Now, at some point, you know, finance has gravity. There are laws of physics here. We can't just go up forever. What are you paying attention to, Michael, to kind of give you grounding as to how big of a financial anomaly the AI investment cycle is?
…And what you saw within five years, Global Crossing was in chapter 11. And the reason being is that fiber optic prices collapsed by 80%. And that was not envisioned in terms of their original prospectus. But that's what happened. That's competition. That's capitalism, writ large, roaring tooth and claw or whatever. And we saw that process unravel or their whole capital market process unravel. But the fiber optic cable is still there on the ground. We're still great beneficiaries of that. And I think the same with AI. That's the risk that you run. And there's competition, not just from other US AI producers. There's also competition from China.
We've talked around this earlier in the conversation, Michael. At least you brought it up and you're talking about kind of Besant and Warsh and sort of how they were managing things. There's been this term called Treasury QE. I know you've discussed it. And there's also, of course, Besant has been…
Short answer is it is money printing. So it's here and now. The way to think about this is that people raise the question about, are we looking at fiscal dominance? And I would say, to be more accurate, this is not really fiscal dominance. It's what you would call Keynesian dominance. And if you go…
That's why you've called this instead of yield curve control, you've called this yield volatility control. Exactly. Your