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Start free trial →Prof G Media · Tech Strategy & Big Tech · November 2026
Asked what to make of Anthropic's amended S-1, which put its total compute and data-center commitments at about $895 billion, Foley argues the commitment looks manageable if the reported 2028 revenue guidance holds. He also warns against extrapolating current growth rates.
…this quarter to about 1,100% growth year on year, which slowed from like 1,400%. I mean, these numbers are completely unhelpful, basically, because these growth rates are so high. And extrapolating exactly how much growth we're going to see next year is really, I mean, I think it's a fool's errand.
…that. I think probably the bigger number that really warrants our attention is $895 billion over the next several years. That's the amount they're going to spend on compute. So, we now know exactly what the bill is going to look like. What were some of your big takeaways from the new filing?
Hey, Ed. Well, look, we do know that the compute bill over the next years is going to be very big. We already knew it was going to be quite big. Being able to put this new number on it, $900 billion, I mean, sounds enormous. That may also change as we go forward. It may get bigger. But the revenue is also growing really quickly. As you said, it slowed this quarter to about 1,100% growth year on year, which slowed from like 1,400%. I mean, these numbers are completely unhelpful, basically, because these growth rates are so high. And extrapolating exactly how much growth we're going to see next year is really, I mean, I think it's a fool's errand. What we're looking at, though, broadly is that Anthropic has been guiding, we've heard, to revenue of about $200 billion in the year 2028. So even if it's spending, you know, like $100 billion a year on compute, the revenue still exceeds that. The question, of course, is whether you believe it can hit any of these numbers or whether these numbers will start to look small the closer we get to those deadlines.
If it does hit $200 billion, it seems like this might be a business that is feasible. The trouble is, it seems like a seriously big if. I mean, we had revenue of $17 billion. We also know that growth is obviously slowing, but also that prices appear to be coming down. And they said this, they had…