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SE Steve Eisman Steve Eisman Investor known for betting against the subprime mortgage market before the 2008 financial crisis, a story told in Michael Lewis's book The Big Short.

“All I know is that you guys have been making this argument for 40 years. Because I remember Pete Peterson in the 90s making literally every single sentence that Ray Dalio utters now… And when you make an argument for 40 years and you've been wrong for 40 years, there's got to be a reason why you were wrong for 40 years.”

The Real Eisman Playbook · October 2026

“All I know is that you guys have been making this argument for 40 years. Because I remember Pete Peterson in the 90s making literally every single sentence that Ray Dalio utters now… And when you make an argument for 40 years and you've been wrong for 40 years, there's got to be a reason why you were wrong for 40 years.” — Steve Eisman, The Real Eisman Playbook

Eisman sets up his question to economist Benn Steil about the doomsayers on the US federal deficit. Steil's answer: the dollar is "the winner of an ugly dog contest," but the share of Treasury buyers who don't care about price has fallen from 76% to 43%, which makes the debt harder to fund.

The Real Eisman Playbook · 2026-10-26 Listen to the episode → More from Steve Eisman →

Transcript

The Real Eisman Playbook Around 18:15 into the episode
Steve Eisman

Let's switch topics. We've only covered small things so far. Let's talk about, I'm very curious. You're an economist. I am not. The U.S. federal deficit.

Benn Steil

Currently running about 6% of the annual.

Steve Eisman

So my question for you is: first, I'm going to ask you what's your position about the threat of the debt and of the U.S. debt to the overall economy and the Treasury market. But I want to preface it by saying, you know, people who are call them doomsdayers about the U.S. federal deficit, and there are many people and they're very respectable. What I say about them is I don't have a strong opinion on this topic. All I know is that you guys have been making this argument for 40 years. Because I remember Pete Peterson in the 90s making literally every single sentence that Ray Dalio utters now, Pete Peterson was uttering in the 90s. And when you make an argument for 40 years and you've been wrong for 40 years, there's got to be a reason why you were wrong for 40 years. So that's how I want to preface. Take it away.

Benn Steil

Yeah, so the best way I've heard the U.S. dollar described as the winner of an ugly dog contest.

Steve Eisman

Right.

Benn Steil

You can only compare this particular dog to the rest of the dogs that are out there in the company. As everybody

Speaker names from our own diarization · position estimated from where the line sits in the episode

More from The Real Eisman Playbook

“This is a big problem for us because the more debt we issue, the more interest rate-sensitive investors we have to attract into the market to buy. So what happens is you get an accelerationist effect on the rise in interest rates, because the profile of our investors is getting worse and worse as the deficit gets worse.” — Benn Steil, The Real Eisman Playbook “Sam's roadmap has got to be, number one, have no regulation. … His top choice is no regulation. His second choice is very weak regulation that doesn't impair him. And his third choice is regulation that cuts the ladder so no one else can compete with him.” — Gary Marcus, The Real Eisman Playbook