“The party isn't going to be chastened, the Republican Party. It's going to be crazier. Mike Johnson will be gone. Jim Jordan will be the likely minority leader. So it will be harder, it will be extreme, it will be denser, it will be smaller.”

The Warning with Steve Schmidt · US Politics · October 2026

Context

Said by political strategist Steve Schmidt in a conversation with Katie Couric, 19 days before the November 2026 midterms. Asked how Trump and congressional Republicans would react if Democrats win, he predicted the House Republican conference would move further right after losing seats.

Listen to the episode → What people say about Mike Johnson → More from Steve Schmidt → More US Politics quotes →

Transcript

The Warning with Steve Schmidt Around 32:07 into the episode

Steve Schmidt

…love to see Tommy Tuberville get voted out, but I don't know where Doug Jones standing in the state is. He's someone who's been around the electoral block And so, like, if he's not ahead in the race, you know, we're very close to being in an even race, he's probably not going to make it. Got it.

Katie Couric

…Democratic Senate. But how do you think that will impact both Trump in the White House, his agenda, and Republicans on Capitol Hill? Do you think they're going to be running for cover and his coattails are going to look a lot less appealing? I'm curious what you think the dynamics are going to be.

Steve Schmidt

So I'm going to give you an astronomical analogy, right? So a star, a white star, a dwarf giant, right, when it starts to collapse, as it gets smaller, right, it gets heavier and it gets denser. And this is like a political party. So the party isn't going to be chastened, the Republican Party. It's going to be crazier. Mike Johnson will be gone. Jim Jordan will be the likely minority leader. So it will be harder, it will be extreme, it will be denser, it will be smaller, it will be like that star. It will be more detached from reality, it will be more devoted to Trump, and it will be more demagogic. Full on. The 2028 candidates will all say, my God, having seen 26, but knowing they can't survive Trump's rebuke in a Republican primary. The Republican race will be late starting because they'll all have to buy the fiction that Trump can run for a third term and nobody can give Trump offense by starting to campaign before the pretending ends. There are going to be investigations. There's going to be cries of victimization and…

Katie Couric

Steve, just quickly, can retribution hurt the Democrats? I was talking to somebody about the difference between retribution and accountability, right? And do the Democrats need to tread carefully on making sure that all of these people are held accountable?

Steve Schmidt

Well, I think that you have to be... Democrats are going to take power. All power is coercive, right? Power is about imposing something on someone to do something they would otherwise not want to do, compelling them to do something. The exercise of power can be for the good or for the bad. It's a…

Katie Couric

I'm not laughing. I just love how no bullshit you are, Steve.

Speaker names come from our own diarization. The position is estimated from where the line sits in the episode.

More from The Warning with Steve Schmidt

“You have Wes Moore, who's just a really young talent. Andy Beshear has such a unique story to tell from both his biography and how he's done in his state. So I would say there's multiple other candidates, and I think it is an entirely open field.” — Jay Inslee on Wes Moore, The Warning with Steve Schmidt

“I think Pritzker has been impressive over the last two years. I think that Gavin Newsom, you know, certainly is somebody who has a lot of political skill and has been in the fight.” — Steve Schmidt on JB Pritzker, The Warning with Steve Schmidt