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Conversations with Tyler · Ideas & Essays · September 2026
Tyler Cowen asked when AI's leisure dividend will arrive, since so far people seem to be working more. Garicano answers that it may already be here, just hidden, and recounts what a Chinese CEO told him and his co-authors over dinner. The last line is hers, as he reports it.
…me prepare this client meeting. Here are the budgets and the balance sheet statements of the client. Help me see which accounts, which products of the bank I could offer. And I don't think that needs really to know what the actual frontier model is and how does it differ from the previous ones.
…people, like the two of us, we choose to work more to learn about AI. And then there's other people, they feel they have to work more to learn about AI, to not lose their jobs. And so far, there's no leisure dividend. People basically are working more. When is the leisure dividend going to arrive?
I'm not sure that's the case. Let me give you two data points. So one is a Chinese CEO I had dinner with, my two co-authors are from Hong Kong University. And we had dinner with this CEO who told us she sees every one of her IT people more productive. She looks at the productivity of the overall IT department. Nothing happens. And quote, she said to us, I think they are smoking the productivity gains in the corridor. The second is from the recent NBR Summer Institute. There was a paper in health which gave doctors scribes and they all adopted. I mean, you know, adoption is slow. People are... Well, the automated scribes went up to 100% of adoption really, very quickly. You see doctors scheduling more meetings and doing more stuff. And eventually, and there was a recent New York Times article from a doctor…
But say in the short run, when taxes change, almost always the substitution effect overwhelms the income effect, right? Tax cut, people work more. If taxes go up, people work less. Of course, we see this in Western Europe. So aren't these AI productivity improvements a bit like tax changes? You're…
Both things can happen. I mean, we are seeing Jevon's effects in many of our own utilities and in many of our own decisions to work. It's definitely the case for you and I, as you said. I was just for the amusement of our readers, I guess. Many of you have a whoop. I was really very happy with my…
Is there a plausible scenario whereby Spain, in particular, and I don't mean the EU, I mean Spain, achieves AI sovereignty? Now, you've written about this on your sub-stack, Silicon Continent. What's your view right now? And keep in mind, the whole stack in some way has to be under your control…