Sebastian Mallaby
Writes about finance and technology at the Council on Foreign Relations, where he is the Paul A. Volcker senior fellow for international economics.
“These guys left OpenAI, the seven founders of Anthropic. They left in 2020. They start the company in 2021. And at the time, they're way behind. They don't have a big source of funding like Google DeepMind did because of Google's enormous balance sheet. They didn't have the head start that OpenAI had … And yet it turns out that by 2026, these guys are at the forefront scientifically. They are the biggest revenue, fastest revenue ramp, I think, in the history of capitalism.”
TechStuff · October 2026
Context
The host asked Mallaby what his biggest question is as he starts a book about Dario and Daniela Amodei. He frames Anthropic's rise as improbable given its late start, thin funding and early setbacks.
Transcript
…Think of it as being, you know, part of this momentous period in time. They talk about how each of their employees is worth $ 6. 6 million. Like that's how talent dense this organization is. And they also go through some of the existential issues risks, which they touch on in the interview as well.
Sebastian, I mean, I know it's just been announced in Publishers Weekly, and it's sort of probably a quiet period, so to speak, on the book. But what's your biggest question about Dariam Ali going to be?
…you know, enormous balance sheet. They didn't have the head start that OpenAI had. OpenAI then goes on to do the chat GPT, goes viral in 2022, and Anthropic seems even more behind. They scrounge together some money miraculously from the effective altruist community with Sam Backman-Fried at the center of that. And then he goes to prison. I mean, it's like the setback after setback after setback. And yet it turns out that by 2026, these guys are at the forefront scientifically. They are the biggest revenue, fastest revenue ramp, I think, in the history of capitalism. I would go maybe one notch further than Natasha did. I think it is the biggest, fastest ever. And then also in policy terms, you know, they stick their necks out. They take principal stands. They take on the Trump administration. And they make the weather on the kind of policy and safety front. So I think there's a kind of triple here, right? The policy stuff, the business thing, and the…
It's so crazy how the tech news cycle is nowadays because Microsoft announced they've offered buyouts to 60,000 employees, more than 25% of their entire workforce. It's probably like the fifth biggest tech story of the week. But I mention it just because obviously the other person we're going to be…
Yeah, I mean, I haven't followed that specifically, but it's part of a big thing where, you know, when you're trying to onboard a lot of artificial intelligence. And I use that word deliberately. When you onboard a human, you have to kind of figure out how to use that person, train them and so…
Um, and so they can't write the essays, but they can write their perspectives.
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