“From 2014 up until April, this April, so we're talking about 12 years, I had said that as long as Western support for Ukraine remains at a certain level, Ukraine will win this war, but it's going to take a hell of a long time. In April, as a result of a variety of things stemming from the extraordinary tech breakthroughs they've made here on weapons, I could see this war ending within two years.”
Cleaning Up: Leadership in an Age of Climate Change · Climate & Energy · October 2026
Context
Liebreich compared today's Russia to the brittle Soviet Union he saw in Moscow in 1990. Herbst explains why he changed his long-held view this year, pointing to the damage Ukrainian weapons are doing to Russia and to open criticism of Putin from nationalist military bloggers, while stressing he is not predicting the regime's collapse.
Transcript
I haven't said that yet.
Ah, okay. What are you saying?
From 2014 up until April, this April, so we're talking about 12 years, I had said that as long as Western support for Ukraine remains at a certain level, Ukraine will win this war, but it's going to take a hell of a long time. In April, as a result of a variety of things stemming from the extraordinary tech breakthroughs they've made here on weapons, I could see this war ending within two years. I didn't say it'll definitely end within two years, but I think that's a reasonable prospect. And even sooner than two years, because Russia is a harsh authoritarian state, it's not totalitarian, but it's a harsh authoritarian state. It's become harsher as a result of this war. And in such states, there's an impression of a solid edifice where you don't see the cracks. But I said, in fact, we've…
Yes, and there's a long history of authoritarian states just cracking because they don't tend to reform slowly. And there are examples of that as well, but much, far, far fewer. So it does feel like it could be brittle. Right.
Gierkin just did a piece that appeared in Telegram. Gierkin is a former lieutenant colonel, I believe, in the FSB, who was active in Moscow's taking control of Crimea and trying to take control of Donbass, because that was never an uprising of outraged Ukrainians. It was a Russian operation from…
In a few days, yes. In a few days. So he is raising this question of brittleness. What does that potentially look like? What does Putin do? I mean, obviously, there's one scenario which is somebody else takes over and Putin is sidelined, something happens to Putin, let's say. I don't think Putin…
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