Robert Wright
Author and podcaster who writes about evolution, psychology, religion and the prospects for global cooperation, now with a focus on AI and how to avert catastro...
“I would guess the Jensen thing helps Anthropic's IPO. We will see tighter enforcement of existing chip restrictions, quite plausibly a whole new regulation on the deployment of chips to clouds that can be rented by Chinese companies. That makes chips more abundant and therefore cheaper for American companies, and presumably slows down China's open source stuff, which slows the commoditization of Anthropic's current revenue stream.”
Doom Debates! · AI Research & Frontier Labs · November 2026
Context
Robert Wright asked whether Jensen Huang's fall would affect Anthropic's upcoming IPO, then answered himself. He frames Dario Amodei's long-running China hawkishness as consistent with Anthropic's commercial interest.
Transcript
…Anthropic's IPO? It's not inconceivable that it could adversely affect it. I guess I haven't thought it through at all. I'm just asking the question. I'm not talking finance here. Yeah, because the IPO could happen as early as like, I think, a week from now or something. I don't know. Yeah, yeah,
…that needs to come online just to serve current models, right? I think that they can make trillions per year in revenue serving current models. That's what I think. And I'm speaking as somebody who's personally paying like $1,000 a day for AI and for my corporate use right now because it's super
useful. Yeah, by the way, my unfold disclosure is a few years ago when the LLM thing hit, I just thought, well, you know, I bought some stock and put it in my, in my SEP IRA in, I don't know, Google, Microsoft, probably Apple, Amazon, Meta, maybe somebody else. I think since then I sold a little meta at one point where it looked like Zuckerberg was totally out of the rate, but I basically don't touch it. I'm definitely calling for things that I think in the short term would hurt the stock value. I do think in the long run, stability is good. So I guess in a way, I'm talking my book, my long run book, because I think, you know, a pause would be more likely to lead to a stable future one, two, three years down the road, whatever. Anyway, that's my full disclosure. Now, remind me where you think I was heading before. Oh, I know what I wanted to say. Like, I would guess there was in a way some risk that the NVIDIA thing could hurt Anthropic, just in the sense that, you know, there's nervousness about the AI trade and the, you know, the various like the neo clouds and blah, blah, blah. And you can imagine. The NVIDIA thing, when it hurt NVIDIA stock, having triggered some kind of cascade of panic. Last time I checked…
All right. Yeah, you know, maybe we'll see. We'll see if you're correct very shortly. All right. I think you are similar to me pro this idea of an AI treaty between the U.S. and China. So maybe you also feel good about this March for an AI treaty, Saturday, November 14th, AITreatyMarch.org…
I encourage people to turn out. I also think a pause at a surely national level would make sense at this point, would not hurt Anthropic and OpenAI would not lead China to catch up rapidly. I've actually written a piece about that. I hope it'll be published at some venue near you, possibly my…
I should say: San Francisco, Washington, D.C., New York, Boston, Chicago, Philadelphia, Seattle, Montreal, Toronto, Vancouver, Paris, Marseille, Berlin, Atlanta. Whoa, whoa, whoa. Okay, Atlanta's unconfirmed. All right, but that's still a lot of cities. Okay. I think the anti-AI or the AI pacing…
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