“The valuation of OpenAI and Anthropic alone combined in the private markets and what we're likely to see as they come public is already more than the peak NASDAQ valuation when it crashed in 2000. So the problem is, is people are looking in public markets for a thing that's sitting in plain sight in private ones.”
Prof G Markets · Money & Markets · October 2026
Kedrosky answers the common pushback to his bubble warnings: public-market price-earnings multiples look nothing like the dot-com era, so where's the bubble? He says it's in the private markets, and expects a significant correction by around the first half of next year, after the trouble at CoreWeave.
Transcript
once it starts here, how far do you go with this? It wouldn't surprise me to see someone try to staunch the bleeding as the
…of something similar. So he's much smarter than I am. So I'll go with Paul and say the first half of the year. But I think it could be sooner. The thing is, is that one way to think about what's going on, and I get this question all the time, is like the timing question. And they say, well, you
can't be soon because market price earnings multiples are nothing like they were back in the dot-com era. Where's the bubble, Paul? Where's the bubble? And of course, the answer is the valuation of OpenEye and Anthropic alone combined in the private markets and what we're likely to see as they come public is already more than the peak NASDAQ valuation when it crashed in 2000. So the problem is, is people are looking in public markets for a thing that's sitting in plain sight in private ones. And so we're already there and the triggers
are everywhere. But it's your view then that the bubble exists, but it's not pervasive to the entire market. It's in pockets of the market. It's in places like private markets or the neo clouds or certain chip manufacturers. There are some stocks which are way over their skis. Yes.
I mean, it's widespread. It's just that private markets are the new public markets, right? That's the term we've been hearing now for five years because of the disappearance of public equities from the marketplace. And so as a result, unsurprisingly, if private markets are the new public, Public…
China. And those two are rippling and going to like waves coinciding. Whenever they go down, they'll bring each other down. And so that's, say, $6 trillion in nonsensical market capitalization. As we record this, Anthropic is just wrapping up its private investor day. They are reportedly disclosing…
More from Prof G Markets
