“…I was always taught only fools forecast. And a plan is a sort of forecast. And the world is so unpredictable that it's, you know, the plans I've been involved with never come true.” James Reed · James Reed: all about business
August 2026
Reed is the host, and his guest has just made the case for writing a business plan in your first year. He undercuts his own episode's premise, saying the plans he has been involved with are either blown away by outperformance or exposed as wishful thinking. He then walks it partway back: the structure is still useful for ordering your thoughts, even if the numbers never survive contact with the business.
Transcript
say, you looked outing on this
plan. Yeah,
I mean, I was always taught only fools forecast. And a plan is a sort of forecast. And the world is so unpredictable that it's, you know, the plans I've been involved with never come true. They're either blown away because the business has outperformed them or, you know, they look as a wishful thinking because the business hasn't delivered. But it's, I think, I think, I don't want to contradict you because I think it is helpful to order our thoughts by putting them into a structure like that.
Absolutely.
But at the same time, being super conscious that things change and they change fast. Would you agree? You're nodding.
I would agree with that. And this is where you've got to have flexibility built into the plan. So know the direction in which you want to go, but also know how you're going to deal with unexpected challenges, but also hopefully opportunities.