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LS Linus Sebastian Founded the YouTube channel Linus Tech Tips in 2008 and built it into Linus Media Group, a company covering computer hardware, tech news, and product testing ac...

“It's the gambler's paradox: you can look in the past and feel that you understand the patterns and the formations in the charts. And that can give you a false sense of security that can be reinforced by getting it right a handful of times. But if you roll a six 10 times in a row, that has no bearing whatsoever on whether the next number will be a six. And when so many of these companies are traded on vibes, predicting which way they're going to go can be a fool's errand.”

The WAN Show · October 2026

“It's the gambler's paradox: you can look in the past and feel that you understand the patterns and the formations in the charts. And that can give you a false sense of security that can be reinforced by getting it right a handful of times. But if you roll a six 10 times in a row, that has no bearing whatsoever on whether the next number will be a six. And when so many of these companies are traded on vibes, predicting which way they're going to go can be a fool's errand.” — Linus Sebastian, The WAN Show

Context

During a discussion of the tech stock sell-off, Luke noted that six-month charts still show many tech companies up. Linus pushed back that past performance doesn't predict what comes next, and said that's why he mostly stays out of stocks and crypto.

Transcript

The WAN Show Around 05:25 into the episode
Linus Sebastian

In no way indicates the future. Six months of

Luke Lafreniere

the future. And that's something

Linus Sebastian

that's basically the gambler's paradox: you can look in the past and feel that you understand the patterns and the formations in the charts. And that can give you a false sense of security that can be reinforced by getting it right a handful of times. But actually, if you roll a six 10 times in a row, that has no bearing whatsoever on whether the next number will be a six. And when so many of these companies are traded on vibes, predicting which way they're going to go can be a fool's errand, which is a big part of the reason that I mostly sit on the sidelines. Like I think I've talked on WAN Show October about how I lost a chunk of change on Bitcoin at one point and basically was like, well, I guess that's what gambling is. I don't like it. So I'm out on crypto. I'm out on stocks for the most part. Like I said, I think a responsible investment strategy involves some stocks. Quite frankly, I'm trying to figure out what's not taking a beating right now. It seems like the bond market is where some of the cash is going. There's like multiple countries right now that I watched a really interesting video the other night that was like which of the G7, the wealthiest countries, are going to go bankrupt first. And it basically kind of like laid out sort of these…

Luke Lafreniere

do you know what creator it was?

Linus Sebastian

I don't remember, but it's got a ton of views and it's from not very long ago. So if you just search for which country will go bankrupt first, you'll find it for sure. It was pretty fun, though. Pretty scary. Apparently, Canada's in better shape than I thought. So there's that.

Luke Lafreniere

Is that a more recent thing?

Speaker names come from our own diarization. The position is estimated from where the line sits in the episode.

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