“The prediction markets, almost in every race, I think it was all the toss-ups, effectively called them well before the networks did themselves… It was both fascinating and also kind of depressing and terrifying, because I still view them as generally gambling platforms and not some other type of thing.”
Big Technology · Tech Strategy & Big Tech · November 2026
Context
Alex asked about the debate over whether prediction markets beat pollsters in the midterms. Ranjan described watching network election coverage that now shows prediction-market odds on screen.
Transcript
…any awareness to a point where we can do anything about it. So that's the part that bothers me. Again, I'm not, I'm not discounting again, dude, video editing blows my mind. What has happened in the last six weeks? Like it is crazy what is available right now and how much better it's gotten.
Wait, say what you've what you've seen on it. So now
you can like motion graphics on video, you can just ask AI to do. And Claude has already done it, and I'm sure it's going to be everywhere very soon. Like the most complex thing, even prompt-based video editing of like being like, go through this, eliminate all the jump cuts, improve the audio, you just prompt it now. And this did not exist like two months ago. All of that. So yes, the pace of innovation continues. And that is heavy compute, complex type stuff. And it's working. So to me, it's less about is the model front the frontier evolving at a pace that is still dramatic. To me, that's not the question. It's, are you giving us some useful information about what to do about it or just kind of maintaining your position as like the god in all of this ahead of your IPO that is in a bit of trouble? I know I shouldn't look at it just like that, but I can't help it. No,
I hear you. I hear you completely. All right, before we leave, give us your thoughts on the tell everybody about the prediction market debate that has sort of spiraled over the past week and what your thoughts are. Yeah,
so election night last Tuesday, this week, I mean, I could guess Tuesday. It's been, again, another long week. So my biennial foray into actually watching CNN and ABC News and kind of network news, which I don't do at any other time, I was kind of shocked because even they are all partnering with…
Well, I think there's a debate going on this week that sort of will, whichever side you land on will sort of point to the answer there. So Tarek Mansoor, the CEO of Calci, said prediction market favorites won 479 of the first 487 races. That's 98%. And Nate Silver, famed pollster, for Our guest on…
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