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H" Heather "Lucky" Penney Heather "Lucky" Penney Director of Research at the Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies, focused on Air Force force structure, command and control, unmanned systems, autonomy and...

“We've proven with the Raptor that a silver bullet small fleet is a recipe for breaking the force. So when it comes to F-47, we've got to at least get to 250. And I'd argue that 500 is probably closer to the actual number you need when you take into consideration simultaneity and the geographies of global engagement. Because the fact of the matter is, one jet cannot be in more than one place at one time.”

The Aerospace Advantage · Geopolitics & World Affairs · November 2026

“We've proven with the Raptor that a silver bullet small fleet is a recipe for breaking the force. So when it comes to F-47, we've got to at least get to 250. And I'd argue that 500 is probably closer to the actual number you need when you take into consideration simultaneity and the geographies of global engagement. Because the fact of the matter is, one jet cannot be in more than one place at one time.” — Heather "Lucky" Penney, The Aerospace Advantage

Context

Walking through the Air Force's new fighter report, she argues the F-22 fleet was worn out because it was too small, and that the next-generation F-47 fleet must be far larger than the report implies.

Transcript

The Aerospace Advantage Around 36:42 into the episode
Heather "Lucky" Penney

…are taking longer to go through depot, and that means they've got a backlog at depot. And that means you don't have the 18 to 24 aircraft at the fighter squadrons. And these health metrics are not going to get better with time. Aircraft will only get older. So these Vipers have to be replaced now.

Speaker 4

…demand, with concurrency all the time. That is just a steady state. And so I would just want to make sure that those floors account for that real-world demand, not what makes sense on an Excel spreadsheet to meet a budget top line saying one major theater only. Yeah, it's never worked that way. No,

Heather "Lucky" Penney

…on the F-22. You know, at 187 jets, there was not enough jets for training, test, backup inventory, attrition reserve, or even really simply a rotational presence. There's been so much demand from combatant commanders for F-22. That fleet has been rode hard. They're a high-demand, low-density asset, and that has really worn the force prematurely. So we can't have F-47 be a silver bullet force. We've proven with the Raptor that a silver bullet small fleet is a recipe for breaking the force. So when it comes to F-47, we've got to at least get to 250. And I'd argue that 500 is probably closer to the actual number you need when you take into consideration simultaneity and the geographies of global engagement. Because the fact of the matter is, one jet cannot be in more than one place at one time. And quantity will be key to sustainability and more importantly, combat success. Laser Sledge, what are your thoughts to add? I mean, a lot of congressional delegations are tracking this topic, given the advanced age of fighters and the need to recapitalize, and just to be honest, bases in their districts.

Anthony Lazarski

They are tracking it. And it's not just by congressional delegations. You got to look at the committees because that's where your professional staff are. That's where the people that have been working this with the Air Force and the Space Force and all the other services for a long time. So they…

Heather "Lucky" Penney

Hey,

Speaker 4

that's very fuel-efficient aircraft.

Speaker names come from our own diarization. The position is estimated from where the line sits in the episode.

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