“I always joke that even if you bought an EV to get around high gasoline prices, that EV was delivered to you likely on a flatbed powered by diesel. That's just the way this world works.”
The Great Simplification with Nate Hagens · October 2026
Context
Johnston was explaining why diesel, not crude, is the epicenter of the Hormuz oil crisis. He said New York Harbor diesel futures recently hit a record, with crack spreads around five to six times their long-term norm.
Transcript
…is. Because I think at the end of the day, it's important to remember that while obviously, you know, crude and gasoline and diesel and death fuel are all related, at the end of the day, they are fundamentally distinct commodities, each with their own supply and demand curves underlying them.
…important product because of its energy and power density and use in tractors and machinery and such. So, Rory, what is the current state of diesel prices? How have refineries been responding to shortages in the last month? And you were quite worried about this in April. What do you think now?
Yeah. So, overall, diesel is still the epicenter of our current crisis. And as you noted, diesel is in pretty well everything. So, whether that's groceries, your Amazon delivery, everything comes on a truck. I always joke that, like, even if you bought an EV to kind of get around high gasoline prices, that EV was delivered to you likely on a flatbed powered by diesel. That's just the way this world works. And the EV
is made from other products in the oil. And the EV
is made for, and the lithium and cobalt is mined using diesel.
And the asphalt that it drives on is made. Asphalt, yeah. All of
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