Rory Johnston

Things Rory Says on Podcasts

Oil market analyst and founder of Commodity Context, a Toronto-based research service. Formerly led commodity economics research at Scotiabank, setting the bank's energy and metals forecasts. Lecturer at the University of Toronto's Munk School, and a fellow at the Canadian Global Affairs Institute and the Payne Institute at the Colorado School of Mines. Writes the Commodity Context newsletter and appears on Oil Ground Up, Odd Lots, Macro Voices and Heatmap News. His analysis is quoted in the Financial Times, Wall Street Journal and Bloomberg.

Where to Find Them

Rory Johnston writes Commodity Context , hosts Oil Ground Up and writes Geopolitics & Empire . They have also been a guest on Macro Voices (9 times) , Heatmap News (4 times) , Odd Lots (4 times) , Palisades Gold Radio (3 times) , Top Traders Unplugged (2 times) , The Great Simplification with Nate Hagens (2 times) , Competent Investor - Tom Bodrovics (2 times) , Facts vs Feelings with Ryan Detrick & Sonu Varghese (2 times) , Forward Guidance (2 times) , American Power , Know Your Risk Podcast , ChinaTalk , Monetary Matters with Jack Farley , NAB Morning Call , Value Hive Podcast , Geopolitical Cousins , Bankless and RenMac .

Recently: “Dennis Kissler: The Biggest Oil Price Risk Is to the Downside” on Oil Ground Up (October 2026); “A Shattered Market?: The Counterintuitive Story of the Hormuz Oil Crisis with Rory Johnston” on The Great Simplification with Nate Hagens (October 2026); “Did China Just Save the Global Oil Market?” on American Power (October 2026); “Iran Is Attacking Tankers. Why Is the Oil Still Flowing?” on Oil Ground Up (October 2026); “Oil Context Weekly (W43)” on Commodity Context (October 2026); “[PUBLIC] Donald Trump’s Diesel Desperation” on Commodity Context (October 2026).

What They Said

“I always joke that even if you bought an EV to get around high gasoline prices, that EV was delivered to you likely on a flatbed powered by diesel. That's just the way this world works.” — Rory Johnston, The Great Simplification with Nate Hagens

Johnston was explaining why diesel, not crude, is the epicenter of the Hormuz oil crisis. He said New York Harbor diesel futures recently hit a record, with crack spreads around five to six times their long-term norm.

The Great Simplification with Nate Hagens · 2026-10-28 Permalink → Listen →
The Great Simplification with Nate Hagens Around 43:39 into the episode
Rory Johnston

…is. Because I think at the end of the day, it's important to remember that while obviously, you know, crude and gasoline and diesel and death fuel are all related, at the end of the day, they are fundamentally distinct commodities, each with their own supply and demand curves underlying them.

Nate Hagens

…important product because of its energy and power density and use in tractors and machinery and such. So, Rory, what is the current state of diesel prices? How have refineries been responding to shortages in the last month? And you were quite worried about this in April. What do you think now?

Rory Johnston

Yeah. So, overall, diesel is still the epicenter of our current crisis. And as you noted, diesel is in pretty well everything. So, whether that's groceries, your Amazon delivery, everything comes on a truck. I always joke that, like, even if you bought an EV to kind of get around high gasoline prices, that EV was delivered to you likely on a flatbed powered by diesel. That's just the way this world works. And the EV

Nate Hagens

is made from other products in the oil. And the EV

Rory Johnston

is made for, and the lithium and cobalt is mined using diesel.

Nate Hagens

And the asphalt that it drives on is made. Asphalt, yeah. All of

Speaker names come from our own diarization. The position is estimated from where the line sits in the episode.

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