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LM Luke Muehlhauser On 80,000 Hours Podcast

“One very small example is the US has this AI Safety and Security Institute, now called CAISI, and its budget is $15 million a year. Some comparison points: That's the size of a public library in a small- medium-sized city. Another comparison I looked up was it's 25 times less than the Pentagon spends on marching bands every year. And I like marching bands. I actually listen to marching band music. But that's a comparison I don't agree with.”

80,000 Hours Podcast · October 2026

“One very small example is the US has this AI Safety and Security Institute, now called CAISI, and its budget is $15 million a year. Some comparison points: That's the size of a public library in a small- medium-sized city. Another comparison I looked up was it's 25 times less than the Pentagon spends on marching bands every year. And I like marching bands. I actually listen to marching band music. But that's a comparison I don't agree with.” — Luke Muehlhauser, 80,000 Hours Podcast

Context

Muehlhauser argues that most of the institutions needed to make AI go well don't exist yet, or are tiny. He contrasts the US AI safety institute's budget with the UK's, and with the regulators, auditors and incident investigators that aviation and nuclear power have.

Transcript

80,000 Hours Podcast Around 05:19 into the episode
Luisa Rodriguez

OK. It sounds like you think a lot of the institutions that should exist to make AI go well just completely don't exist. Can you talk a bit more about that?

Luke Muehlhauser

Yeah, I think most of the institutions that need to exist don't exist.

Speaker

If you just think about this in the big picture, AI is going to be the most transformative thing this century, maybe just in human history, prima facie a large fraction of global effort should be going to making sure this goes well -- safety, governance, et cetera. And we have almost none of that. There's a lot that needs to be built. One very small example is the US has this AI Safety and Security Institute, now called CAISI, and its budget is $15 million a year. Some comparison points: That's the size of a public library in a small- medium-sized city. Another comparison I looked up was it's 25 times less than the Pentagon spends on marching bands every year. And I like marching bands. I actually listen to marching band music. But that's a comparison I don't agree with. In the UK they have their own AI safety institute, the AI Security Institute. That I think is $70 or $80 million dollars a year or something like that. If the US's budget for its AI safety institute was proportionally the same as the UK one, given the size of the US budget, then I think the US one would be like $850 million a year — way, way bigger than it is now. That feels a little more…

Luisa Rodriguez

OK, so that's a bunch of government institutions that really should exist for AI and sounds like mostly totally don't.

Speaker

Are there projects that you'd like to see that a person with a relevant skill set could found -- that you don't have to be in government, doing things with government mandates?

Luke Muehlhauser

Yeah, yeah. Probably hundreds. One whole category is you can often trial run a lot of these things that are normally government functions in the private sector as nonprofits or whatever, and then just test out some of the functions and so on -- and then the things that are working best can be…

Speaker names come from our own diarization. The position is estimated from where the line sits in the episode.

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