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EG Ed Grosvenor Ed Grosvenor On Artisan Beer

“I suspect that the Anthropic IPO is going to be kind of the same thing. There's going to be a lot of people who are going to take advantage of liquidity and run. And so we'll find out what Anthropic is really worth in today's market, which is not going to be anything close to what they're trying to pitch it at now.”

Artisan Beer · AI Builders · November 2026

“I suspect that the Anthropic IPO is going to be kind of the same thing. There's going to be a lot of people who are going to take advantage of liquidity and run. And so we'll find out what Anthropic is really worth in today's market, which is not going to be anything close to what they're trying to pitch it at now.” — Ed Grosvenor, Artisan Beer

Context

Ed was explaining why he is skeptical that cheap AI will last, saying venture money is drying up and that a recent big IPO quickly showed its valuation was off. He predicts the same for an Anthropic listing.

Transcript

Artisan Beer Around 10:56 into the episode
Ed Grosvenor

do under the assumption that intelligence is going to get better and cheaper. And I think that, you know, the you not think

Peter Van Dijck

that's the case?

Ed Grosvenor

Oh, I think that's been the trend, but I think that a lot of the cheaper is just subsidies and, you know, these major labs really, you know, they're just in a land grab trying to get as many users as they can get. I don't think that the prices we're paying now come even close to reflecting the actual cost of the inference plus the infrastructure, plus the research and development, all the costs that go into it. I think that the real cost of the stuff is way higher than what we're paying. And I don't know. And so my skepticism is all around like we think that maybe in 10 years we can feel really good about saying that intelligence is going to be extremely good and extremely cheap because we will have solved all these things. But I think we're in for like this painful cycle where the, you know, somebody's going to have to start paying the costs. I mean, the venture capital money is drying up to some extent. SpaceX's IPO was fun, but it showed really quickly that the valuation was not correct. I suspect that the Anthropic IPO is going to be kind of the same thing. Like there's going to be a lot of…

Peter Van Dijck

I'll push back on you, though. Just for me, so one thing is like, I don't try to understand the market and the world economy because I'm like, figure it out, guys. Like, you know, I can have opinions and it's fun, but I have zero control and I'm not, you know, whatever. And then on the inference…

Ed Grosvenor

If you discard Opus 5.5 and you just say, look, I'm just going to use DeepSeek or whatever. And what work can I do with DeepSeek? That's fine. The problem is that a lot of the organizations, at least the ones that I've encountered, they get very vendor-locked. Like my entire workflow is in Rockbot…

Peter Van Dijck

I don't trust that dude. No, no,

Speaker names come from our own diarization. The position is estimated from where the line sits in the episode.

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