NP Nilay Patel Nilay Patel Editor-in-chief of The Verge, which he co-founded in 2011, covering consumer technology, platforms and the policy around them.

“It certainly feels like merchants that pay Meta more money would be preferred merchants. And that means that not only do I have an assistant or chief of staff, I have a bribeable chief of staff. Like I have a corrupt butler.”

Decoder with Nilay Patel · Tech Strategy & Big Tech · October 2026

Patel is asking how Meta's free AI assistant is supposed to make money. He says the stated plan is to take a cut when the assistant sends a shopper to a merchant. His co-host replies that nobody wants that, and asks what will convince people an AI recommendation can be trusted if it can be bought.

Transcript

Decoder with Nilay Patel Around 40:33 into the episode
Speaker 1

spectrum. That's the spectrum. The cute,

Nilay Patel

sexy graph. Yeah, it's going to be really, it's going to be really disturbing to see when we go more along that graph. But yeah, I think that the point is they're supposed to be disarming and that people should really think twice before giving too much of their data or just pick and choose what you're comfortable giving, right? Like how you did with the spam email versus your regular email or saying no to your credit card. These are both new products. So kind of just see how the cookie crumbles before you decide to just, you know, give everything over. We're already seeing a bunch of changes week to week with how people are using Muse or what they're upset about. So, you know, just kind of see how it shakes out.

Speaker 3

The last piece I want to talk about is just. How any of this makes money? You and I have talked many times about the bubbly nature of the AI economy. Zuckerberg has said his plan is for Muse to take a cut of transactions on the back end. So, Zuck has given everybody a little Linux computer in the cloud with eight gigs of RAM. Obviously, he's given away tons of free tokens. He does not have to pay advertising costs. He can just put Muse across all of his platforms. And to the extent that Meta is a well-oiled machine, the amount of Muse promotion that is happening across meta platforms instantly is kind of incredible to see. They just turned it on. I saw an ad during NFL games this weekend for Muse. They are spending money to promote this. They're giving it away for free. They're giving the tokens away for free. And then somewhere at the end of this, they're going to say to merchants, Hey, this person was shopping for shoes. Muse brought them to your doorstep. You're going to pay for this customer to buy shoes from you. I don't know any merchants that are excited about this. And it certainly feels like merchants that pay Meta more money would be preferred merchants. And that means that not only do I have an assistant or chief of staff, I have a bribeable chief of staff. Like I have a corrupt butler. Is that what you want?

Nilay Patel

That is a great term for a corrupt butler. Yeah, that is not what I want. And I don't think many people do. It's just crazy to me that like we've gotten so far from what people really want, which is they want to trust a recommendation and they don't want to be scammed. The leaders in AI don't think about how this has been, how certain things have been mirrored in other industries. Like think about when people were paying for reviews for their businesses or like paying to delete reviews for their businesses. That was a huge uproar or influencers getting paid to recommend things without disclosing that it was an ad. Then we saw the rise of micro-influencers who were more valuable for a while because they were seen as more trustworthy. They didn't have that many followers. So the things they recommended must be really good, right? And then we saw the, okay, well, their hashtag ad, but also they only said they were going to recommend things they really believe in. So it's okay that it's an ad. It's like these mental gymnastics that people have to do to figure out what is really a trustworthy recommendation these days. What is going to convince people that an AI recommendation is trustworthy if it can be bought? So I think that's something that these companies are really going to have to reckon with. You know, the ChatGPT ads blowback was huge and OpenAI had to say, look, it's going to be a clearly disclosed ad underneath your query, not influencing your query. So, I mean, if you're using Muse to shop and it's an undisclosed, like potential, you know, meta customer that you're being redirected to to buy those shoes instead of these other ones, I feel like so many people aren't going to use it to shop.

Speaker 3

So I get it on the meta side. I understand why they would think about monetization that way. They're a consumer company. This is a consumer product. They know the second they charge even a dollar for it, the uptake will drop precipitously. So they got to keep it free. And then a bunch of people are going to want to shop and go buy me a new iPhone cable. You know, at the end of the day, it's all just the same Amazon garbage anyway. So whatever. And then they can run an auction on the back end to be like, who wants to pay us meta the most for the privilege of selling an unbranded USB-C cable to this customer? And they'll run some auction. And that will, in its way, just sort of maximize the money that gets turned around. And that is broadly how advertising works today. That's how the Google search results page worked until recently when that is full of AI. And they're probably going to do the same thing. Meta can do that because they already have a giant advertising business that prints money. They can give away a consumer product. Mark Zuckerberg has been shown willing to blow money trying to win a market like he did with Reality Labs for years and years and years. And they can just run it till it works. OpenAI, even at $100 a month, is probably not making money on those customers. In fact, I think we know they're not making money on those customers. They don't have any monetization. And when they do try to turn on ads, people get mad at them. How can they keep up with Zuck?

Nilay Patel

Only via enterprise. I think that's why they are pushing this so hard. You know, we saw a ton of enterprise discussion, demo videos, customer feedback, tons of stuff at Dev Day. And that's why they're pushing this so hard because they can't keep up with Zuck on the consumer front. They just can't.

Speaker names from our own diarization · position estimated from where the line sits in the episode

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