JD

Jason Draho

Things Jason Says on Podcasts

Managing Director and Head of Asset Allocation Americas at UBS Global Wealth Management, where he chairs the US Investment Strategy Committee and oversees strategic and tactical asset allocation. Previously spent nine years at Morgan Stanley, ending as Global Cross-Asset Strategist, and holds a PhD in Economics from Yale. Appears on UBS On-Air: Market Moves, and as a guest on Bloomberg Surveillance, Closing Bell and The Meb Faber Show.

Where to Find Them

Jason Draho hosts UBS On-Air: Market Moves . They have also been a guest on Bloomberg Surveillance (3 times) , Closing Bell (2 times) , The View From Apollo and The Meb Faber Show - Better Investing .

Recently: “Top of the Morning: CIO Strategy Snapshot - Weeks when decades happen” on UBS On-Air: Market Moves (November 2026); “Top of the Morning: CIO Strategy Snapshot - An assessment of recent market pricing” on UBS On-Air: Market Moves (October 2026); “Top of the Morning: CIO Strategy Snapshot - Sustainability of the AI trade” on UBS On-Air: Market Moves (October 2026); “How should I be positioned? with Steve Chiavarone (Federated Hermes) and Jason Draho (UBS CIO)” on UBS On-Air: Market Moves (October 2026); “Top of the Morning: CIO Strategy Snapshot - Q3 earnings, oil prices, inflation data” on UBS On-Air: Market Moves (October 2026); “Top of the Morning: CIO Strategy Snapshot - Wash, rinse, repeat” on UBS On-Air: Market Moves (October 2026).

What They Said

“One could even argue that if it does slow things down, that might actually lead to a smoother path of spending, extending the cycle, less demand for capital, so it could ease off some of the financing constraints. Overall, we expect a trillion dollars of AI-related spending in 2026, and that's going to rise to $1.4 trillion in 2027.” — Jason Draho, UBS On-Air: Market Moves

Draho closes his answer on state-level data center restrictions with a contrarian point: slower buildouts could help the AI investment cycle last longer. He then gives UBS's forecast for AI capex.

UBS On-Air: Market Moves · 2026-11-09 Permalink → Listen →
UBS On-Air: Market Moves Around 06:10 into the episode
Jason Draho

…could impose these restrictions. Those three states combined represent about 45% of planned data center capacity buildout. In Texas alone, it's about 25%. So what they do at the state level probably matters more than what happens in DC for the time being, what it means for the AI investment thesis.

Daniel Cassidy

Now, the AI sell-off, Jason, to single that out, raised more questions about the pace of AI investment. And now there is the risk of new state restrictions on building data centers, as you just pointed out. How much could that restrict AI investment?

Jason Draho

So I think it's important to kind of look at this and say, you know, let's not misinterpret efforts at the state or local level to regulate data center development with attempts to stop it entirely. I think even among most Democrats, the policy objective in most of these cases is to make data centers more self-reliant, particularly with respect to electricity generation, grid infrastructure, and water consumption. And so it's not so much say no, but they have to provide something for the community. Texas governor-elect Gina Inohosa had her first press conference on Friday. No mentions of AI or data centers. She had explicitly said in the past that all currently permitted data centers in Texas will be allowed to be completed or complete their construction. That should cover most of what's set to be built in 2027 into 2028. Hanosa has admitted that her options for a war time are somewhat limited. And in the weekend interview with the New York Times, basically he said as such, in Texas, there is something called the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality, and that has a board with six appointed members. They have…

Daniel Cassidy

Now, Jason, if we turn focus to the broader economy, October's payroll report, labor data came in stronger than expected this past Friday. What does that tell you, Jason, about the underlying health of the U.S. economy and the Fed path from here?

Jason Draho

Well, the economy remains fundamentally solid heading into 2027. Just looking at the payrolls report for October, the non-farm payrolls increased to $165,000. That was well above expectations. August and September, payrolls were both revised higher. Combined, this lifted the three-month average…

Daniel Cassidy

Against that backdrop, Jason, where does that leave the investment outlook and what should investors be doing right now? Look,

Speaker names come from our own diarization. The position is estimated from where the line sits in the episode.
“The three new Democrat-elect governors in Texas, Georgia and Michigan, they could impose these restrictions. Those three states combined represent about 45% of planned data center capacity buildout. In Texas alone, it's about 25%. So what they do at the state level probably matters more than what happens in DC for the time being.” — Jason Draho, UBS On-Air: Market Moves

Asked what the midterm results mean for growth and the data center buildout, UBS's Draho says Democratic control of Congress changes little for AI regulation. The surprise was how well Democrats did at the state level, where governors can slow data center buildouts or impose moratoriums.

UBS On-Air: Market Moves · 2026-11-09 Permalink → Listen →
UBS On-Air: Market Moves Around 04:24 into the episode
Jason Draho

…kind of head into year end, as you mentioned, a lot of investors, especially hedge funds, would kind of want to clean up their books going into year end, may not want to take a lot of risk. So, willingness, having a cleaner book doesn't necessarily mean you want to actually buy this point in time.

Daniel Cassidy

Now, Jason, the big question for investors coming out of the midterms is: what does the outcome mean for fiscal policy, growth rates, and data center buildout? What are two or three standout implications investors should really focus on from here?

Jason Draho

So, I would look at three kind of main implications for what it means for the economy and for the markets. First is on the fiscal front. Now, in order for the government to fund the government, you have a budget to raise the debt ceiling that will be reached by probably Q1 of next year. The Democrats in Congress will likely push to rescind some of the spending cuts that were part of the one big beautiful bill, cuts to Medicaid, I think to food stamps that are set to kick in by 2027. They've already publicly stated that. If they're successful, it could add about 20 basis points of GDP growth next year relative to the current baseline. So, don't you necessarily. Stimulus. Current law suggests some fiscal contraction next year. If the Democrats kind of get this result, it's less fiscal contraction. So that's something to kind of keep in mind in terms of the macro growth outlook. The second set of policy consideration is that President Trump still has considerable discretion on trade, regulation, foreign policy, and he could choose to moderate those existing policies or, in some sense, kind of double down and stay…

Daniel Cassidy

Now, the AI sell-off, Jason, to single that out, raised more questions about the pace of AI investment. And now there is the risk of new state restrictions on building data centers, as you just pointed out. How much could that restrict AI investment?

Jason Draho

So I think it's important to kind of look at this and say, you know, let's not misinterpret efforts at the state or local level to regulate data center development with attempts to stop it entirely. I think even among most Democrats, the policy objective in most of these cases is to make data…

Daniel Cassidy

Now, Jason, if we turn focus to the broader economy, October's payroll report, labor data came in stronger than expected this past Friday. What does that tell you, Jason, about the underlying health of the U.S. economy and the Fed path from here?

Speaker names come from our own diarization. The position is estimated from where the line sits in the episode.

Collections They Appear In

Money & Markets