Steve Eisman
Investor known for betting against the subprime mortgage market before the 2008 financial crisis, a story told in Michael Lewis's book The Big Short.
“If just, for example, OpenAI went bankrupt tomorrow. And I'm not making that prediction, but let's just say that it did. I think the U.S. economy would go into a recession. … It's not the same thing as a great financial crisis. The banks are fine.”
The Compound and Friends · October 2026
Eisman was comparing an AI funding break with 2008. He says it would look more like a General Motors-style bankruptcy than a banking collapse: painful for the economy, but not a threat to the financial system.
Transcript
So this is more like the General Motors story. Okay. I mean, it's a very big story.
Or if you can't get your trips out of the data center, then what?
Well, that's bad for you. Yeah. You know, but it's not the end of the world. I mean, I mean, we obviously will go more into the AI story, but if just, for example, OpenAI went bankrupt tomorrow. And I'm not making that prediction, but let's just say that it did. I think the U.S. economy would go into a recession. You do. I do. It's not the same thing as a great financial crisis. The banks are fine.
How do they become so systemically important? This is a non-public company. I know in the private market, the valuation is a trillion, a trillion and a half, whatever it is. How did they become so systemically important in three years to the point where they could send the entire U.S. economy into…
made, they and Anthropic both went out and made commitments to basically everybody who would take their pen.
Right.
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