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GS Geoffrey Skelley Geoffrey Skelley Chief Elections Analyst for Decision Desk HQ. Data journalist, elections guru, and close observer of American politics.

“First elected in 1982, Democratic Rep. Marcy Kaptur is about as well-entrenched an incumbent as exists, but Ohio’s new district lines made her already red-leaning seat a hair more Republican (Trump +11). Yet she is a 7 in 10 favorite in her rematch against Republican Derek Merrin, whom Kaptur narrowly defeated in 2024.”

Decision Desk HQ · US Politics · October 2026

“First elected in 1982, Democratic Rep. Marcy Kaptur is about as well-entrenched an incumbent as exists, but Ohio’s new district lines made her already red-leaning seat a hair more Republican (Trump +11). Yet she is a 7 in 10 favorite in her rematch against Republican Derek Merrin, whom Kaptur narrowly defeated in 2024.” — Geoffrey Skelley on Marcy Kaptur, Decision Desk HQ

Context

Assessing key House races to watch on Election Night.

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