“The Commerce Department is actually a law enforcement agency. They have people with guns and badges and who can arrest people for export control violations. So for a law enforcement official to tell a company that they're being investigated … the FBI would never do that, but that's what's happening here.”
Prof G Markets · Money & Markets · November 2026
Context
Ed Elson asked whether cronyism explains why Commerce halted its Megaspeed investigation. Chris McGuire points at reports that an official alerted NVIDIA to an ongoing investigation into its business partner, and says investigators should ask who benefited.
Transcript
…this because the Commerce Department is not enforcing these policies. So I think very clearly we need to be asking why there's not a good answer. And at the minimum, they should be enforcing the regulations that are already on the books that would actually prevent this situation in the first place.
…a lot. We know that the president respects Jensen Huang and feels that NVIDIA is an important part of the American economy, which it is. And so maybe this is sort of a result of cronyism resulting in making exceptions for people. I mean, is that what we ought to make of it? And if not, why not?
…is a question that I think investigators need to look into. I think in particular, like, are there ties between Cantor Fitzgerald and NVIDIA that need to be examined, given Secretary Lutnick? Why did Under Secretary Kessler intervene in, like you said, in an ongoing investigation into Megaspeed and by proxy NVIDIA and alert NVIDIA about that investigation? I think so many people remember is that the Commerce Department is actually a law enforcement agency. They have people with guns and badges and who can arrest people for export control violations. So for a law enforcement official to tell a company that they're being investigated or that their closest business partner is being investigated, like the FBI would never do that, but that's what's happening here. So I think there's a host of questions that not only are resulting in extremely bad policies, but also like I think we have to reasonably wonder, you know, is someone benefiting from this? Is someone profiting from this? Because I just, I cannot come up with a better…
Well, say more about that because that's going to be so crucial for investors, especially. Because if we learn that there, I mean, we know that NVIDIA gets a significant amount of its revenue from non-China Asia Asian companies. And if this is another example of, you know, I mean, if this is the…
Yeah. So there's a few different elements of this. And ultimately, I do think it's the tip of the iceberg on the smuggling. I'm actually less concerned about impacts on NVIDIA sales over longer term. I'll explain why. I think that the, you know, if you look at some of the trade data, there have…
Looking ahead to what might happen next, we're seeing on Cal Shi 20% of traders think that Jensen Huang will be out before the end of the year. What do you think happens next year? Do you think Jensen Huang stays? Does he resign? What's the next chapter?
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