“Some people might be valuing 'building God' as basically infinite, so there will be some amount of miscalibration there. And I think 'let them cure cancer' is going to be Marie Antoinette's 'let them eat cake.'”
Unsupervised Learning with Jacob Effron · AI Builders · November 2026
Context
Asked whether Anthropic is undervalued going public at a trillion-plus valuation, Diogo argues lab valuations rest partly on misunderstandings of what AI can do. He warns that grand promises like curing cancer may land with the public the way 'let them eat cake' did.
Transcript
…at the labs always talks about, where my understanding is they structure these deals in incredibly beneficial ways to not fuck themselves over, but fuck other people over who are taking the risk and trying to like latch onto the rocket ship and are willing to like accept whatever terms that would
on the compute side?
Yes, on all sorts of sides, but especially compute. I think that financial engineering, as far as I've heard, is their greatest strength. And I have no idea how much of a rat's nest that is and how vulnerable they would be to any which direction of the market going. You know, like a bubble can pop just because expectations are not met, not because it's not truly a transformative technology. So I'm a little, I try not to, I try to be calibrated in my predictions. I try not to be overly confident when I have no privy information. And I would, I'm, I'm a more conservative person. I get the sense that a lot of the expectations baked in are ones that are not just product level, but based on like misunderstandings of the future of AI and what it can do. So my guess is that because some people might be valuing like building God as basically infinite, there will be some amount of miscalibration there. And I think that, you know, like the let them cure cancer is going to be like Marie Antoinette's like…
That is a that is a good line. I mean, obviously.
Maybe it did end spicy then.
That was that was a great line. I feel like the, yeah, I mean, obviously so many people are underwriting, you know, the move into from coding agents to general knowledge work to bio to these other spaces. And obviously like not the perfect use cases for RLVR by any means.
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