“Mainly the thing that drives cybersecurity is economics: how expensive is it to prosecute an attack? How expensive is it to defend it? How do I force an attacker to have a very expensive path to their goal? I think that's what will re-establish the equilibrium. But it's going to be a fun, maybe terrifying, interim state.”
CyberWire Daily · Software Engineering & Infra · November 2026
Context
Greg Notch finishes his answer on whether AI will reach a new balance between attackers and defenders. He argues cost, not capability, ultimately sets the baseline, and that the transition will be rough. The episode also covered OpenAI's new GPT-6 Cyber model.
Transcript
…part. I actually think in the long enough time scale, LLMs favor defenders because one of the things defenders has to do is process huge amounts of data and cover lots of doors and windows, if you think about it that way. And being able to deploy software and agents to do that is a massively scale
…period of time. I mean, my crystal ball is broken in terms of like how long things take anymore, but let's just say for a year, 18 months, maybe less, maybe more. Like, we're in this place of where like it's seriously favoring the offensive side. And I think defensive tools take longer to catch
up. So, I think we will reestablish a different equilibrium and a different baseline. I think we're still figuring out how to use AI on both sides. So, there will be a new baseline. Because mainly the thing that drives cybersecurity is economics: like, how expensive is it to prosecute an attack? How expensive is it to defend in it? Like, how do I force an attacker to have a very expensive path to their goal? So, I think that's what will re-establish the equilibrium. But I think it might, it's going to be a fun by fun, I mean, maybe terrifying, like, you know, in like interim state.
That's Greg Notch, CTO at Expel. The cybersecurity challenges shaping our future demand more than conversation, they demand action. On November 18th, the Aspen Cyber Summit brings together leading voices from government, industry, and civil society in Washington, D.C. to tackle today's most…
And hello, Maria Varmazis here. On Sunday's T-Minus Base Cyber Briefing, my conversation with Vito Askins, systems engineer in intelligence and aerospace, with his new book, Everything Was Green Until Integration. That's Sunday on T-Minus. Don't miss it.
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