“I would say export controls so far have cost NVIDIA exactly zero sales. Every single chip they have made since their chips started to be controlled has actually still been bought. They don't have excess supply.”
Prof G Markets · Money & Markets · November 2026
Context
Ed Elson asked whether NVIDIA's revenue is at risk if chip smuggling through firms like Megaspeed is shut off. Chris McGuire argues demand is so high that any chip not sold to a Chinese cutout would be bought by someone else. It cuts against NVIDIA's long-running argument that export limits hurt its business.
Transcript
…this? Because I just, I cannot come up with a better explanation for why you would continue to let all these chips flow. And I should also just say MegaSpeed is undoubtedly the tip of the iceberg. There's undoubtedly a slew of additional Megaspeeds that are that are also receiving all these chips.
…example of, you know, I mean, if this is the tip of the iceberg, then we could be looking at significant amounts of NVIDIA revenue, which is going to be, I guess, voided, shut off, maybe that they're going to be punished for. I mean, say more about why you believe that there is more to this story.
Yeah. So there's a few different elements of this. And ultimately, I do think it's the tip of the iceberg on the smuggling. I'm actually less concerned about impacts on NVIDIA sales over longer term. I'll explain why. I think that the, you know, if you look at some of the trade data, there have been $80 billion of AI chips that this year that went to Singapore, Thailand, and Malaysia. They actually were the number two, three, or two, four, and five importer of AI chips in the world behind the United States. About half the AI chips that don't go to the United States goes to those three countries. And these are countries that don't have robust AI industries. Now, obviously, there are many data centers in them, and some of those data centers are run by U.S. companies. But there's also a lot of data centers that are run by companies that are not, that are, you know, the cloud providers that are providing all of this compute to China. So I do think that that has to be looked into because this is…
Looking ahead to what might happen next, we're seeing on Cal Shi 20% of traders think that Jensen Huang will be out before the end of the year. What do you think happens next year? Do you think Jensen Huang stays? Does he resign? What's the next chapter?
I'll leave that to NVIDIA to do that internal decision analysis and investigation and decision. I mean, they've hired a very serious and professional firm to do the kind of internal oversight, which is good. I imagine that there is going to be substantial congressional oversight into this, both…
Chris McGuire is Senior Fellow for China and Emerging Technologies at the Council on Foreign Relations. Chris, I appreciate your time.
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