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GS Geoffrey Skelley Geoffrey Skelley Chief Elections Analyst for Decision Desk HQ. Data journalist, elections guru, and close observer of American politics.

“First up are two seats with Democratic incumbents: Reps. Kathy Castor and Jared Moskowitz of Florida’s 14th and 25th districts, respectively. Each incumbent has about a 2 in 3 chance of winning despite competing on redder turf under the GOP’s new Florida lines.”

Decision Desk HQ · US Politics · October 2026

“First up are two seats with Democratic incumbents: Reps. Kathy Castor and Jared Moskowitz of Florida’s 14th and 25th districts, respectively. Each incumbent has about a 2 in 3 chance of winning despite competing on redder turf under the GOP’s new Florida lines.” — Geoffrey Skelley on Jared Moskowitz, Decision Desk HQ

Context

Assessing key House races to watch on Election Night.

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