TK

Tom Karako

Things Tom Says on Podcasts

Directs the Missile Defense Project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, where he researches nuclear deterrence and national security policy. Argues that missile defense systems like the Golden Dome effort cannot win a conflict by themselves, but that going without them can lose one quickly. Appears regularly on The Lawfare Podcast to discuss missile defense, hypersonic weapons, and great-power competition. Joined CSIS in 2014 and holds a PhD from Claremont Graduate University.

Where to Find Them

Tom Karako hosts The Lawfare Podcast . They have also been a guest on The Lawfare Podcast: Patreon Edition (3 times) , The Impossible State (2 times) , Net Assessment , Odd Lots , Bloomberg News Now and NatSec Matters .

Recently: “Unpacking the IG Report on the Iran War” on Net Assessment (September 2026); “Lawfare Archive: The Golden Dome Missile Defense Program” on The Lawfare Podcast: Patreon Edition (August 2026); “Lawfare Archive: The Golden Dome Missile Defense Program” on The Lawfare Podcast (August 2026); “Trump Threatens New EU Tariffs, US Measles Reach 35-Year High, More” on Bloomberg News Now (July 2026); “War in Iran is Chewing Through American Missile Stockpiles” on Odd Lots (March 2026); “Arrows and Quivers: Dr. Tom Karako” on NatSec Matters (June 2025).

What They Said

“Air missile defense is not going to win a conflict for you by itself, but its absence will lose one for you pretty quick in this environment.” — Tom Karako, The Lawfare Podcast: Patreon Edition

Karako was asked to explain the Golden Dome missile defense effort to people outside the missile defense community. Rather than sell it as a shield, he sets a deliberately modest claim for it: not a war-winner, just something whose absence is fatal. Two turns later he goes further and says missile defense will be a limited, scarce asset like every other weapon system, and that you cannot defend everything.

The Lawfare Podcast: Patreon Edition · 2026-08-22 Permalink → Listen →
The Lawfare Podcast: Patreon Edition Around 05:53 into the episode
Tom Karako

You've seen the Russian kind of proliferation of crews and hypersonic and yes, undersea, you know, megaton delivery devices. It's going to be wicked hard to get everything. And that's why I think it is far more stabilizing than destabilizing when you put pen to paper and you think it through.

Daniel Byman

…order entitled An Iron Dome for America. It's since come to be called the Golden Dome effort. And for those of us who are outside the missile defense community, can you give us a description of what Golden Dome is, why it's happening now, the cost and purpose, and just make us smart, please.

Tom Karako

…number of very sophisticated air and missile attacks on Israel, for instance, over the past couple years. And you've also seen a real, I would say, stepping out and a demonstration of the technical prowess of active air missile defense. You know, Ukraine has put the Patriot air defense system on its currency because of the significance of its to kind of preserving Ukraine's sovereignty to date. Air missile defense is not going to win a conflict for you by itself, but its absence will lose one for you pretty quick in this environment. One can just imagine what would have happened in terms of, for instance, Israel's response on April 14 of last year when hundreds and hundreds of things were coming in simultaneously. If it had not been for the engagement of so many hundreds of those things, both in the air and with ballistic missile defense, it would almost certainly have meant a massive response by Israel to Iran. And so the…

Daniel Byman

When we talk about these systems, my impression is the cost can vary considerably depending on what you're trying to achieve. Can you talk us through what some of the estimates are, both for the near term, but also as we think of this as, you know, five years out, 10 years out, what this might end…

Tom Karako

Yeah, well, I think it is important to emphasize that every weapon system in DOD is limited, every one of them, and missile defense will be a limited, scarce asset as well. It's not going to be unlimited. I think that's something that somehow gets in the conversation on the water and needs to be…

Daniel Byman

So let's talk a little bit more about the threat. I at least was surprised in some ways by the effectiveness of missile defense against what Iran threw at Israel and also impressed by what's been happening with Ukraine when they, when at least when the systems have been in place. That said, China's…

Speaker names come from our own diarization. The position is estimated from where the line sits in the episode.

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