Chamath Palihapitiya CEO @SocialCapital, Bestie @theallinpod

“We're effectively like in 1999 and 2000 in the internet media world where everybody just works on CPM. … Right now it's cost per million input tokens. … When Google invented and scaled AdWords and AdSense, the market exploded. Because we went from buying a thousand ads to just getting an outcome. Right now we buy a million tokens. We will eventually move to an outcome.”

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg · Money & Markets · October 2026

Asked whether he is bearish on an Anthropic IPO, Chamath says no: he calls its revenue "breathtaking" and argues only that it should price low enough to raise a very large war chest. Here he describes the shift he expects in how AI is sold, from paying for tokens to paying for results.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg · 2026-10-17 Listen to the episode → More from Chamath Palihapitiya → More Money & Markets quotes →

Transcript

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg Around 45:33 into the episode

Jason Calacanis

…hat. It's just there on the side of your AI slot background. So, Shamath, you said $1 trillion for Anthropic a couple weeks ago. What are you thinking here? Do you think they have significant headwinds or do you think this is going to be a blockbuster IPO? Where are you at? Here in October of

Ben Horowitz

2026.

Chamath Palihapitiya

…it. I don't know how to process it. I think their products are exceptionally good. I think they're doing the hard work and to open AI's credit, they are as well, of walking down the price curve so that they're less and less at risk of open source. I still think that there's a bunch of cannibalization that has to happen on the token side. I also think the big thing that has to happen in AI is we're effectively like in 1999 and 2000 in the internet media world where everybody just works on CPM. You know, that time it was cost per thousand ads. Right now it's cost per million input tokens. We will move to CPC and CPA, right? And so when Google invented and scaled AdWords and AdSense, the market exploded. Right. Because we went from buying a thousand ads to just getting an outcome. Right now we buy a million tokens. We will eventually move to an outcome. And I think when that happens…

Jason Calacanis

So you're saying you want them to raise more money at a lower valuation so they have a war chest. $150 billion at $1.5 trillion is

Chamath Palihapitiya

not enough. It's not enough. $200 billion barely gets them a few gigawatts. And that is the bottom line math. If Anthropic IPO going to go through and survive an eventual correction, I think it's much better for them to have $200 to $250 billion today than to try to ring the bell at $1.9 or $2…

David Sacks

are you saying they should raise, Jamath?

Speaker names from our own diarization · position estimated from where the line sits in the episode

More from All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

“At Figma, we said, hey, if you are using AI in your writing of any kind, just put at the top, written with AI. Very simple, very easy to follow. And people made jokes about it internally, but people do it. And it makes it so that we can all trust that when we see something, we know that it's been cared for enough that it's worth your time to process. And I think that we're going to see some bifurcation here around trust.” — Dylan Field, All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

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