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JG Jim Geraghty Jim Geraghty Senior political correspondent at National Review and contributing columnist at The Washington Post since 2022.

“We probably should be a little skeptical of these internal polls released by the Osborn campaign. Lo and behold, an internal poll from the pro-Osborn super PAC put Osborn ahead by one percentage point. … Dan Osborn is close in Nebraska. Again, registered voters. It's just a very Republican state. You really need things to break their way.”

3 Martini Lunch – Political Humor & Commentary · US Politics · October 2026

“We probably should be a little skeptical of these internal polls released by the Osborn campaign. Lo and behold, an internal poll from the pro-Osborn super PAC put Osborn ahead by one percentage point. … Dan Osborn is close in Nebraska. Again, registered voters. It's just a very Republican state. You really need things to break their way.” — Jim Geraghty on Dan Osborn, 3 Martini Lunch – Political Humor & Commentary

Context

Jim Geraghty of National Review on the 3 Martini Lunch podcast (October 1, 2026), discussing Democratic hopes in traditionally Republican Senate races. He was comparing Osborn's 2024 campaign polling with the result and the current race against Sen. Pete Ricketts.

Listen to the episode → What people say about Dan Osborn → More from Jim Geraghty → More US Politics quotes →

Transcript

3 Martini Lunch – Political Humor & Commentary Around 09:14 into the episode
Jim Geraghty

…to put them over the top. Nebraska, you could pretty much rerun the tape from my assessment of it last time around. Dan Osborne released a bunch of internal polls. He convinced people that this was going to be a very close race. When the votes were counted, Republican Deb Fischer won 53.3% to.

Speaker 1

46.7%, a margin of more than 62,000 votes. Is that a guarantee that Republican Pete Ricketts is going to win reelection?

Jim Geraghty

No, but it says we probably should, you know, be a little skeptical of these internal polls released by the Osborne campaign. Lo and behold, an internal poll from the pro-Osborne super PAC put Osborne ahead by one percentage point. Time is a flat circle, as they said in the first season of True Detective. Everything we've ever done is going to happen again.

Speaker 1

And here we go again.

Jim Geraghty

Dan Osborne is close in Nebraska. Again, registered voters. It's just a very Republican state. You really need things to break their way. I see a very similar dynamic in South Dakota where independent... By the way, Brian Bangs ran as a Democrat for Senate four years ago.

Speaker 1

Nothing's changed. This guy is a Democrat. Oh, but I'm an independent now.

Speaker names come from our own diarization. The position is estimated from where the line sits in the episode.

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