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Start free trial →Platypus Economics with Justin Wolfers · Money & Markets · November 2026
Explaining why low unemployment tends to push up inflation, Wolfers uses the example of a restaurant when the economy is running hot.
If people are not buying stuff, then you don't raise your prices.
Right.
So it is absolutely about demand. The way I always like to think about the economy and the Phillips curve as thinking about if you were running the Outback Steakhouse. I've been doing this for years. I wrote it in my textbook this way, and it really helps, which is, Augusta, if you're running the Outback Steakhouse, you have to print next year's menus. And what are you going to do? Well, in a hot economy, lots of people go out to dinner and they might want themselves a bloomin' onion. So they go to the Outback Steakhouse. So if you've got 100 seats in your restaurant, but 120 people turn up, we know in the long run, what you're going to do is expand the restaurant. But in the short run, you've got 120 people at the door and only 100 seats. You may as well jack up your prices. So what you just said is a hot economy leads to higher prices at the Outback Steakhouse. And if that, if, if what is true for the Outback Steakhouse is true for America, then you've just discovered the Phillips curve. Now, what they believed in the 1950s was not just that there was a trade-off, but that was a menu. You could sit down and you say yourself…
Oh.
And the problem is it can be a trade-off, but not a menu, because you might start thinking to yourself, oh, you know what? I would really like some of that delicious low unemployment. We know low unemployment comes with high inflation. But if people expect high inflation, that in itself creates…
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