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JW Justin Wolfers Justin Wolfers Professor of economics and public policy at the University of Michigan, a non-resident senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, and author of a widely used i...

“If you've got 100 seats in your restaurant, but 120 people turn up, in the long run you're going to expand the restaurant. But in the short run you've got 120 people at the door and only 100 seats. You may as well jack up your prices. If what is true for the Outback Steakhouse is true for America, then you've just discovered the Phillips curve.”

Platypus Economics with Justin Wolfers · Money & Markets · November 2026

“If you've got 100 seats in your restaurant, but 120 people turn up, in the long run you're going to expand the restaurant. But in the short run you've got 120 people at the door and only 100 seats. You may as well jack up your prices. If what is true for the Outback Steakhouse is true for America, then you've just discovered the Phillips curve.” — Justin Wolfers, Platypus Economics with Justin Wolfers

Context

Explaining why low unemployment tends to push up inflation, Wolfers uses the example of a restaurant when the economy is running hot.

Transcript

Platypus Economics with Justin Wolfers Around 16:50 into the episode
Justin Wolfers

If people are not buying stuff, then you don't raise your prices.

Augusta Chapman

Right.

Justin Wolfers

So it is absolutely about demand. The way I always like to think about the economy and the Phillips curve as thinking about if you were running the Outback Steakhouse. I've been doing this for years. I wrote it in my textbook this way, and it really helps, which is, Augusta, if you're running the Outback Steakhouse, you have to print next year's menus. And what are you going to do? Well, in a hot economy, lots of people go out to dinner and they might want themselves a bloomin' onion. So they go to the Outback Steakhouse. So if you've got 100 seats in your restaurant, but 120 people turn up, we know in the long run, what you're going to do is expand the restaurant. But in the short run, you've got 120 people at the door and only 100 seats. You may as well jack up your prices. So what you just said is a hot economy leads to higher prices at the Outback Steakhouse. And if that, if, if what is true for the Outback Steakhouse is true for America, then you've just discovered the Phillips curve. Now, what they believed in the 1950s was not just that there was a trade-off, but that was a menu. You could sit down and you say yourself…

Augusta Chapman

Oh.

Justin Wolfers

And the problem is it can be a trade-off, but not a menu, because you might start thinking to yourself, oh, you know what? I would really like some of that delicious low unemployment. We know low unemployment comes with high inflation. But if people expect high inflation, that in itself creates…

Augusta Chapman

Like what?

Speaker names come from our own diarization. The position is estimated from where the line sits in the episode.

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